Value Assessment
Home Win
1.83
39% pred
-15.2%
Draw
3.32
27% pred
-3.4%
Away Win
4.60
34% pred
+12.0%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
2.02
44%
BTTS No
1.73
45%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Away Win
@
4.60
+12.0% edge
34% probability
Expected value: +0.55 units per bet
Confidence
Low
60%
Key Insights
European Race
Moreirense in position 6 - competing for European qualification
Medium impactTop Scorer
Moreirense has Guilherme Schettine Guimarães ranked #9 in league scoring (9 goals) - strong attacking threat
Medium impactMatch Normality
100%
Normal match expected
Match Info
Kickoff
Fri, Jan 30 2026
·
20:45
Venue
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
(Guimarães)
Competition
Liga Portugal
·
20
Coaches
Luís Correia Pinto
Vitória Guimarães
Vasco Maria de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa
Moreirense
Referee
António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre
Recent Form
Vitória Guimarães
2W 1D 2L
0.8 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Moreirense
1-0
Moreirense
1-0
L
H
Porto
0-1
Porto
0-1
W
H
Nacional
2-1
Nacional
2-1
L
H
Sporting CP
1-4
Sporting CP
1-4
D
H
Gil Vicente
0-0
Gil Vicente
0-0
2W 1D 2L
0.8 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Moreirense
1-0
Moreirense
1-0
L
H
Porto
0-1
Porto
0-1
W
H
Nacional
2-1
Nacional
2-1
L
H
Sporting CP
1-4
Sporting CP
1-4
D
H
Gil Vicente
0-0
Gil Vicente
0-0
2W 1D 2L
0.8 GF · 1.2 GA
L
A
Estoril
2-4
Estoril
2-4
D
A
Casa Pia
0-0
Casa Pia
0-0
W
A
Rio Ave
1-0
Rio Ave
1-0
W
A
Tondela
1-0
Tondela
1-0
L
A
Famalicão
0-2
Famalicão
0-2
2W 1D 2L
1 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Moreirense
1-0
Moreirense
1-0
L
A
Estoril
2-4
Estoril
2-4
L
H
Porto
0-1
Porto
0-1
W
H
Nacional
2-1
Nacional
2-1
D
A
Casa Pia
0-0
Casa Pia
0-0
Moreirense
1W 2D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.2 GA
L
A
Vitória Guimarães
0-1
Vitória Guimarães
0-1
L
A
Alverca
1-2
Alverca
1-2
W
A
AVS
2-0
AVS
2-0
D
A
Estrela Amadora
0-0
Estrela Amadora
0-0
D
A
Estoril
3-3
Estoril
3-3
2W 1D 2L
1 GF · 1.6 GA
W
H
Santa Clara
1-0
Santa Clara
1-0
W
H
Tondela
1-0
Tondela
1-0
L
H
Benfica
0-4
Benfica
0-4
D
H
Famalicão
2-2
Famalicão
2-2
L
H
Porto
1-2
Porto
1-2
1W 2D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.2 GA
L
A
Vitória Guimarães
0-1
Vitória Guimarães
0-1
L
A
Alverca
1-2
Alverca
1-2
W
A
AVS
2-0
AVS
2-0
D
A
Estrela Amadora
0-0
Estrela Amadora
0-0
D
A
Estoril
3-3
Estoril
3-3
3W 0D 2L
1 GF · 0.6 GA
L
A
Vitória Guimarães
0-1
Vitória Guimarães
0-1
W
H
Santa Clara
1-0
Santa Clara
1-0
L
A
Alverca
1-2
Alverca
1-2
W
H
Tondela
1-0
Tondela
1-0
W
A
AVS
2-0
AVS
2-0
Sidelined Players
Vitória Guimarães
2 out
Óscar Rivas
injury
Gustavo Silva
injury
Moreirense
1 out
Vasco Sousa
injury
Head-to-Head (Last 10)
Vitória Guimarães
6
60%
Draws
2
20%
Moreirense
2
20%
Avg Goals
2.0
BTTS
30%
League Signals
Predictability
56%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+7%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.6
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
24%
BTTS
49%
Over 2.5
49%
Final Words
Historically, Vitória Guimarães have dominated this fixture.