Learn how football predictions work, understand statistical analysis, and discover the methodology behind our probability estimates.
Not all predictions carry equal certainty. What our confidence scores mean, and why acknowledging uncertainty improves analysis.
Home teams win more often than away teams. Why this happens, how much it matters, and when home advantage is stronger or weaker.
Not all absences are equal. How to evaluate which injuries matter, which don't, and how to factor team news into match predictions.
The table shows positions but hides context. How to extract useful information from standings and avoid common interpretation errors.
Recent results shape team confidence and capability. How to analyze form correctly, avoiding the traps that make most form analysis misleading.
Historical meetings between teams reveal patterns that pure statistics miss. How to use head-to-head data correctly, and when to ignore it.
The revolutionary metric that changed how we evaluate football performance. What xG measures, why it matters, and how to interpret it correctly.
Every league has unique characteristics that shape match outcomes. Why the same analysis approach can't apply uniformly across all competitions.
High possession doesn't equal dominance. Understanding when possession matters, when it misleads, and what it actually tells us about match dynamics.
A simple metric that's often misused. What shots on target actually tells us, and the better alternatives available.
An introduction to the statistical methods behind football match predictions and what makes certain outcomes more likely than others.