Value Assessment
Home Win
3.75
28% pred
+1.5%
Draw
4.01
24% pred
-0.9%
Away Win
1.85
48% pred
-6.3%
BTTS Yes
1.41
58%
BTTS No
2.80
36%
Key Insights
Title Race
Real Madrid in position 2, 1 point behind leader - competing for title
High impactRotation Risk
Villarreal has 5 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
High impactAway Specialist
Real Madrid exceptional away form: 5 wins in last 8 away matches (62% win rate)
Medium impactMatch Normality
60%
Significant concerns
Match Info
Kickoff
Sat, Jan 24 2026
·
20:00
Venue
Estadio de la Cerámica
(Villarreal)
Competition
La Liga
·
21
Coaches
Marcelino
Villarreal
Arbeloa
Real Madrid
Referee
César Soto Grado
Recent Form
Villarreal
1W 0D 4L
1.2 GF · 2 GA
L
H
Real Madrid
0-2
Real Madrid
0-2
L
H
Ajax
1-2
Ajax
1-2
W
H
Deportivo Alavés
3-1
Deportivo Alavés
3-1
L
H
FC Barcelona
0-2
FC Barcelona
0-2
L
H
FC København
2-3
FC København
2-3
1W 0D 4L
1.2 GF · 2 GA
L
H
Real Madrid
0-2
Real Madrid
0-2
L
H
Ajax
1-2
Ajax
1-2
W
H
Deportivo Alavés
3-1
Deportivo Alavés
3-1
L
H
FC Barcelona
0-2
FC Barcelona
0-2
L
H
FC København
2-3
FC København
2-3
1W 1D 3L
1.2 GF · 2 GA
D
A
Osasuna
2-2
Osasuna
2-2
L
A
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0-3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0-3
L
A
Real Betis
0-2
Real Betis
0-2
W
A
Elche
3-1
Elche
3-1
L
A
Racing Santander
1-2
Racing Santander
1-2
0W 1D 4L
0.6 GF · 2.2 GA
D
A
Osasuna
2-2
Osasuna
2-2
L
A
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0-3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0-3
L
H
Real Madrid
0-2
Real Madrid
0-2
L
H
Ajax
1-2
Ajax
1-2
L
A
Real Betis
0-2
Real Betis
0-2
Real Madrid
3W 0D 2L
2.2 GF · 2 GA
L
A
Benfica
2-4
Benfica
2-4
W
A
Villarreal
2-0
Villarreal
2-0
L
A
Albacete
2-3
Albacete
2-3
W
A
Talavera CF
3-2
Talavera CF
3-2
W
A
Deportivo Alavés
2-1
Deportivo Alavés
2-1
5W 0D 0L
3.4 GF · 0.6 GA
W
H
Rayo Vallecano
2-1
Rayo Vallecano
2-1
W
H
Monaco
6-1
Monaco
6-1
W
H
Levante
2-0
Levante
2-0
W
H
Real Betis
5-1
Real Betis
5-1
W
H
Sevilla
2-0
Sevilla
2-0
3W 0D 2L
2.2 GF · 2 GA
L
A
Benfica
2-4
Benfica
2-4
W
A
Villarreal
2-0
Villarreal
2-0
L
A
Albacete
2-3
Albacete
2-3
W
A
Talavera CF
3-2
Talavera CF
3-2
W
A
Deportivo Alavés
2-1
Deportivo Alavés
2-1
4W 0D 1L
2.8 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Rayo Vallecano
2-1
Rayo Vallecano
2-1
L
A
Benfica
2-4
Benfica
2-4
W
A
Villarreal
2-0
Villarreal
2-0
W
H
Monaco
6-1
Monaco
6-1
W
H
Levante
2-0
Levante
2-0
Sidelined Players
Villarreal
6 out
Alfonso Pedraza
injury
Raúl Albiol
suspension
Pau Cabanes
injury
Sergi Cardona
injury
Logan Costa
injury
+1 more
Real Madrid
5 out
Rodrygo
suspended
Raúl Asencio
suspended
Éder Militão
injury
Ferland Mendy
injury
Antonio Rüdiger
injury
Head-to-Head (Last 10)
Villarreal
2
20%
Draws
2
20%
Real Madrid
6
60%
Avg Goals
3.7
BTTS
70%
League Signals
Predictability
46%
LOW
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.6
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
27%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
46%
Final Words
Villarreal have struggled recently, winning just 0 of their last 5 matches. Real Madrid arrive in strong form with 4 wins from 5 games. The head-to-head favors Real Madrid in recent meetings.