Value Assessment
Home Win
1.59
41% pred
-21.8%
Draw
4.07
29% pred
+4.8%
MARGINAL
Away Win
5.39
30% pred
+11.1%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.74
55%
BTTS No
2.04
39%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Away Win
@
5.39
+11.1% edge
30% probability
Expected value: +0.60 units per bet
Confidence
Medium
68%
Key Insights
European Race
VfB Stuttgart in position 3 - competing for European qualification
Medium impactRotation Risk
VfB Stuttgart has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactStreak Watch
VfB Stuttgart unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) - solid defensive form
Medium impactStreak Watch
FC Union Berlin unbeaten in 5 games (2 wins, 3 draws) - solid defensive form
Medium impactHigh Scoring
VfB Stuttgart involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5
Medium impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 41.1% home win vs 62.9% market consensus - lower probability, 21.8% gap
Medium impactMatch Normality
70%
Minor irregularities detected
Match Info
Kickoff
Sun, Jan 18 2026
·
14:30
Venue
MHPArena
(Stuttgart)
Competition
Bundesliga
·
18
Coaches
Sebastian Hoeneß
VfB Stuttgart
Steffen Baumgart
FC Union Berlin
Referee
Deniz Aytekin
Related Coverage
Recent Form
VfB Stuttgart
3W 2D 0L
1.6 GF · 1 GA
W
H
SC Freiburg
1-0
SC Freiburg
1-0
W
H
Young Boys
3-2
Young Boys
3-2
D
H
FC Union Berlin
1-1
FC Union Berlin
1-1
W
H
Eintracht Frankfurt
3-2
Eintracht Frankfurt
3-2
D
H
TSG Hoffenheim
0-0
TSG Hoffenheim
0-0
3W 2D 0L
1.6 GF · 1 GA
W
H
SC Freiburg
1-0
SC Freiburg
1-0
W
H
Young Boys
3-2
Young Boys
3-2
D
H
FC Union Berlin
1-1
FC Union Berlin
1-1
W
H
Eintracht Frankfurt
3-2
Eintracht Frankfurt
3-2
D
H
TSG Hoffenheim
0-0
TSG Hoffenheim
0-0
3W 0D 2L
2.4 GF · 1 GA
L
A
St. Pauli
1-2
St. Pauli
1-2
W
A
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3-0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3-0
L
A
Roma
0-2
Roma
0-2
W
A
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
4-1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
4-1
W
A
Werder Bremen
4-0
Werder Bremen
4-0
3W 0D 2L
1.6 GF · 1.2 GA
L
A
St. Pauli
1-2
St. Pauli
1-2
W
H
SC Freiburg
1-0
SC Freiburg
1-0
W
H
Young Boys
3-2
Young Boys
3-2
W
A
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3-0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3-0
L
A
Roma
0-2
Roma
0-2
FC Union Berlin
1W 2D 2L
1 GF · 1.6 GA
L
A
TSG Hoffenheim
1-3
TSG Hoffenheim
1-3
D
A
VfB Stuttgart
1-1
VfB Stuttgart
1-1
D
A
FC Augsburg
1-1
FC Augsburg
1-1
W
A
FC Köln
1-0
FC Köln
1-0
L
A
VfL Wolfsburg
1-3
VfL Wolfsburg
1-3
1W 2D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.8 GA
D
H
Eintracht Frankfurt
1-1
Eintracht Frankfurt
1-1
L
H
Borussia Dortmund
0-3
Borussia Dortmund
0-3
D
H
FSV Mainz 05
2-2
FSV Mainz 05
2-2
W
H
RB Leipzig
3-1
RB Leipzig
3-1
L
H
Heidenheim
1-2
Heidenheim
1-2
1W 2D 2L
1 GF · 1.6 GA
L
A
TSG Hoffenheim
1-3
TSG Hoffenheim
1-3
D
A
VfB Stuttgart
1-1
VfB Stuttgart
1-1
D
A
FC Augsburg
1-1
FC Augsburg
1-1
W
A
FC Köln
1-0
FC Köln
1-0
L
A
VfL Wolfsburg
1-3
VfL Wolfsburg
1-3
0W 3D 2L
0.8 GF · 1.8 GA
D
H
Eintracht Frankfurt
1-1
Eintracht Frankfurt
1-1
L
A
TSG Hoffenheim
1-3
TSG Hoffenheim
1-3
L
H
Borussia Dortmund
0-3
Borussia Dortmund
0-3
D
A
VfB Stuttgart
1-1
VfB Stuttgart
1-1
D
A
FC Augsburg
1-1
FC Augsburg
1-1
Sidelined Players
VfB Stuttgart
13 out
Lazar Jovanovic
suspended
Yannik Keitel
injury
Jeff Chabot
injury
Dan-Axel Zagadou
suspended
Jeremy Arévalo
suspended
+8 more
FC Union Berlin
8 out
Ivan Prtajin
injury
Andrej Ilic
injury
Jérôme Roussillon
injury
Tom Rothe
injury
Josip Juranovic
injury
+3 more
Head-to-Head (Last 10)
VfB Stuttgart
3
30%
Draws
4
40%
FC Union Berlin
3
30%
Avg Goals
3.1
BTTS
60%
League Signals
Predictability
55%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.1
HIGH
Draw Rate
25%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
60%
Final Words
FC Union Berlin have been inconsistent, managing just 0 win in their last 5.