Just Football Predictions

Varaždin vs Gorica

1. HNL Stadion Anđelko Herjavec
Varaždin

Varaždin

0
-
0
Gorica

Gorica

Value Assessment Best Opportunity Key Insights Match Context Recent Form Sidelined Head-to-Head League Signals Final Words

Value Assessment

Home Win
3.20
48% pred
+16.8%
VALUE
Draw
3.14
31% pred
-0.8%
Away Win
2.43
21% pred
-20.2%
BTTS Yes 1.84 42%
BTTS No 1.85 51%

Key Insights

Relegation Zone

Gorica

Gorica in position 8 (near relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 20.9% away win vs 41.2% market consensus - lower probability, 20.2% gap

Medium impact

Bookmaker Split

Bookmakers disagree on home win: 1.90 (bet365) to 4.00 (Pinnacle) - 27.6% probability spread indicates market uncertainty

High impact

Bookmaker Split

Bookmakers disagree on away win: 1.90 (10Bet) to 3.90 (bet365) - 27.0% probability spread indicates market uncertainty

High impact

Match Normality

65%

Significant concerns

Match Info

Kickoff
Sat, Apr 4 2026 · 00:00
Venue
Stadion Anđelko Herjavec (Varaždin)
Competition
1. HNL · 28
Coaches
Nikola Šafarić
Nikola Šafarić
Varaždin
Mario Carević
Mario Carević
Gorica
Referee
Dario Bel Dario Bel
Related Coverage
League season story Varaždin form report Gorica form report

Recent Form

Varaždin Varaždin
3W 0D 2L
1.8 GF · 1.8 GA
W H Osijek Osijek 2-1
L H Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-3
W H Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-2
W H Rijeka Rijeka 1-0
L H Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica 1-3
3W 0D 2L
1.8 GF · 1.8 GA
W H Osijek Osijek 2-1
L H Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-3
W H Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-2
W H Rijeka Rijeka 1-0
L H Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica 1-3
2W 1D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.4 GA
W A Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica 2-0
W A Gorica Gorica 2-1
L A Vukovar Vukovar 0-2
D A Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-1
L A Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-3
3W 0D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.4 GA
W H Osijek Osijek 2-1
W A Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica 2-0
W A Gorica Gorica 2-1
L H Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-3
L A Vukovar Vukovar 0-2
Gorica Gorica
1W 1D 3L
0.8 GF · 1.6 GA
L A Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3
L A Rijeka Rijeka 0-1
D A Osijek Osijek 1-1
L A Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica 1-2
W A Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1
2W 1D 2L
0.8 GF · 1 GA
W H Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0
L H Varaždin Varaždin 1-2
L H Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0-2
W H Istra 1961 Istra 1961 1-0
D H Vukovar Vukovar 1-1
1W 1D 3L
0.8 GF · 1.6 GA
L A Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3
L A Rijeka Rijeka 0-1
D A Osijek Osijek 1-1
L A Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica 1-2
W A Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1
1W 1D 3L
0.6 GF · 1.4 GA
L A Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-3
W H Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0
L H Varaždin Varaždin 1-2
L A Rijeka Rijeka 0-1
D A Osijek Osijek 1-1

Sidelined Players

Varaždin Varaždin 1 out
Thierry Nevers
Thierry Nevers
injury
Gorica Gorica 2 out
Sekou Matar Sagna
Sekou Matar Sagna
injury
Jurica Prsir
Jurica Prsir
suspension

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Varaždin
1
10%
Draws
4
40%
Gorica
5
50%
Avg Goals
2.5
BTTS
70%

League Signals

Predictability
52%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+8%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.6
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
26%
BTTS
48%
Over 2.5
48%

Final Words

Gorica have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5. The head-to-head favors Gorica in recent meetings.