Sporting CP vs Paris Saint Germain

Value Assessment

Home Win
4.37
37% pred
+14.4%
VALUE
Draw
4.13
26% pred
+1.5%
Away Win
1.71
37% pred
-21.5%
BTTS Yes 1.48 54%
BTTS No 2.54 40%

Key Insights

Title Race

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain in position 3, 5 points behind leader - competing for title

Medium impact

European Race

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain in position 3 - competing for European qualification

Medium impact

Streak Watch

Sporting CP

Sporting CP unbeaten in 5 games (4 wins, 1 draws) - solid defensive form

Medium impact

Home Fortress

Sporting CP

Sporting CP unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (8 wins, 0 draws) - strong home advantage

Medium impact

High Scoring

Sporting CP

Sporting CP involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5

Medium impact

High Scoring

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 37.0% away win vs 58.5% market consensus - lower probability, 21.5% gap

Medium impact

Match Normality

75%

Minor irregularities detected

Match Info

Kickoff
Tue, Jan 20 2026 · 20:00
Venue
Estádio José Alvalade (Lisboa)
Competition
Champions League · League Stage , 7
Coaches
Luis Enrique
Luis Enrique
Paris Saint Germain
Referee
Anthony Taylor Anthony Taylor

Recent Form

Sporting CP Sporting CP
5W 0D 0L
3.4 GF · 0.4 GA
W H Nacional Nacional 2-1
W H Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 2-1
W H Casa Pia Casa Pia 3-0
W H Rio Ave Rio Ave 4-0
W H AVS AVS 6-0
5W 0D 0L
3.4 GF · 0.4 GA
W H Nacional Nacional 2-1
W H Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 2-1
W H Casa Pia Casa Pia 3-0
W H Rio Ave Rio Ave 4-0
W H AVS AVS 6-0
3W 1D 1L
2.2 GF · 1.6 GA
W A Athletic Club Athletic Club 3-2
W A Arouca Arouca 2-1
D A Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1
W A Vitória Guimarães Vitória Guimarães 4-1
L A FC Bayern München FC Bayern München 1-3
5W 0D 0L
2.4 GF · 1 GA
W H Nacional Nacional 2-1
W A Athletic Club Athletic Club 3-2
W A Arouca Arouca 2-1
W H Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 2-1
W H Casa Pia Casa Pia 3-0
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
3W 1D 1L
1.4 GF · 1 GA
W A Strasbourg Strasbourg 2-1
W A Auxerre Auxerre 1-0
L A Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2
W A Metz Metz 3-2
D A Athletic Club Athletic Club 0-0
4W 1D 0L
3.2 GF · 1 GA
D H Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-1
W H LOSC Lille LOSC Lille 3-0
W H Paris Paris 2-1
W H Rennes Rennes 5-0
W H Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham Hotspur 5-3
3W 1D 1L
1.4 GF · 1 GA
W A Strasbourg Strasbourg 2-1
W A Auxerre Auxerre 1-0
L A Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2
W A Metz Metz 3-2
D A Athletic Club Athletic Club 0-0
3W 1D 1L
1.6 GF · 0.8 GA
W A Strasbourg Strasbourg 2-1
D H Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-1
W A Auxerre Auxerre 1-0
L A Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2
W H LOSC Lille LOSC Lille 3-0

Sidelined Players

Sporting CP Sporting CP 5 out
Pedro Gonçalves
Pedro Gonçalves
suspended
Pedro Gonçalves
Pedro Gonçalves
injury
Maxi Araújo
Maxi Araújo
suspended
Jeremiah St. Juste
Jeremiah St. Juste
injury
Geovany Quenda
Geovany Quenda
injury
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 1 out
Quentin Ndjantou
Quentin Ndjantou
injury

Head-to-Head (Last 1)

Sporting CP
1
100%
Draws
0
0%
Paris Saint Germain
0
0%
Avg Goals
3.0
BTTS
100%

League Signals

Predictability
57%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.0
HIGH
Draw Rate
20%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
57%

Final Words

Sporting CP enter this match in excellent form, winning 5 of their last 5 matches.