Sporting CP vs Nacional - Liga Portugal Prediction

Value Assessment

Home Win

1.14

73% pred

-14.9%

Draw

8.13

19% pred

+6.6%

VALUE

Away Win

16.35

8% pred

+2.1%

BTTS Yes 2.04 32%

BTTS No 1.73 60%

Best Opportunity

VALUE

Draw @ 8.13

+6.6% edge 19% probability

Expected value: +0.54 units per bet

Confidence

Low

59%

Key Insights

Title Race

Sporting CP in position 2, 4 points behind leader - competing for title

Medium impact

Streak Watch

Sporting CP on 5-game winning streak - exceptional form

High impact

Home Fortress

Sporting CP unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (8 wins, 0 draws) - strong home advantage

Medium impact

High Scoring

Sporting CP involved in high-scoring games: 9 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5

Medium impact

High Scoring

Nacional involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5

Medium impact

BTTS Tendency

Sporting CP matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes

Medium impact

BTTS Tendency

Nacional matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Sporting CP has Luis Suárez ranked #2 in league scoring (18 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Nacional has Jesús Ramírez ranked #5 in league scoring (13 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Match Normality

100%

Normal match expected

Match Info

Kickoff

Sun, Feb 1 2026 · 18:00

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade (Lisboa)

Competition

Liga Portugal · 20

Coaches

Tiago Carvalho Margarido

Nacional

Referee

Ricardo Baixinho

Recent Form

Sporting CP

5W 0D 0L

3.4 GF · 0.4 GA

W H

Nacional 2-1

W H

Paris Saint Germain 2-1

W H

Casa Pia 3-0

W H Rio Ave

Rio Ave 4-0

W H AVS

AVS 6-0

5W 0D 0L

3.4 GF · 0.4 GA

W H

Nacional 2-1

W H

Paris Saint Germain 2-1

W H

Casa Pia 3-0

W H Rio Ave

Rio Ave 4-0

W H AVS

AVS 6-0

3W 1D 1L

2.2 GF · 1.6 GA

W A

Athletic Club 3-2

W A Arouca

Arouca 2-1

D A

Gil Vicente 1-1

W A

Vitória Guimarães 4-1

L A

FC Bayern München 1-3

5W 0D 0L

2.4 GF · 1 GA

W H

Nacional 2-1

W A

Athletic Club 3-2

W A Arouca

Arouca 2-1

W H

Paris Saint Germain 2-1

W H

Casa Pia 3-0

Nacional

0W 1D 4L

1 GF · 1.8 GA

L A

Sporting CP 1-2

L A

Gil Vicente 1-2

L A

Vitória Guimarães 1-2

D A AVS

AVS 2-2

L A Alverca

Alverca 0-1

2W 1D 2L

2.2 GF · 1.4 GA

W H Rio Ave

Rio Ave 4-0

D H

Santa Clara 3-3

W H Tondela

Tondela 3-1

L H Benfica

Benfica 1-2

L H

Famalicão 0-1

0W 1D 4L

1 GF · 1.8 GA

L A

Sporting CP 1-2

L A

Gil Vicente 1-2

L A

Vitória Guimarães 1-2

D A AVS

AVS 2-2

L A Alverca

Alverca 0-1

1W 1D 3L

2 GF · 1.8 GA

L A

Sporting CP 1-2

W H Rio Ave

Rio Ave 4-0

L A

Gil Vicente 1-2

D H

Santa Clara 3-3

L A

Vitória Guimarães 1-2

Sidelined Players

Sporting CP 5 out

Pedro Gonçalves

suspended

Pedro Gonçalves

injury

Maxi Araújo

suspended

Jeremiah St. Juste

injury

Geovany Quenda

injury

Nacional 3 out

Ivanildo Fernandes

injury

Ulisses

injury

Filipe Soares

injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Sporting CP

9

90%

Draws

1

10%

Nacional

0

0%

Avg Goals

3.1

BTTS

40%

League Signals

Predictability

56%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+7%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

2.6

MEDIUM

Draw Rate

24%

BTTS

49%

Over 2.5

49%

Final Words

Sporting CP enter this match in excellent form, winning 5 of their last 5 matches. Nacional have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5. Historically, Sporting CP have dominated this fixture.