Value Assessment
Home Win
1.77
44% pred
-13.0%
Draw
3.76
32% pred
+5.3%
VALUE
Away Win
4.27
25% pred
+1.1%
BTTS Yes
1.60
57%
BTTS No
2.23
37%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Draw
@
3.76
+5.3% edge
32% probability
Expected value: +0.20 units per bet
Confidence
Medium
65%
Key Insights
Relegation Zone
Heracles Almelo in position 18 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop
High impactMust Win
Heracles Almelo in position 18 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation
High impactHigh Scoring
Heracles Almelo involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5
Medium impactMatch Normality
100%
Normal match expected
Match Info
Kickoff
Sun, Jan 11 2026
·
15:45
Venue
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel
(Rotterdam)
Competition
Eredivisie
·
18
Coaches
Maurice Steijn
Sparta Rotterdam
Ernest Faber
Heracles Almelo
Referee
Jannick van der Laan
Related Coverage
Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam
3W 1D 1L
1.2 GF · 0.8 GA
W
H
FC Groningen
2-0
FC Groningen
2-0
W
H
Heracles Almelo
2-0
Heracles Almelo
2-0
L
H
SC Heerenveen
0-3
SC Heerenveen
0-3
W
H
NAC Breda
1-0
NAC Breda
1-0
D
H
Fortuna Sittard
1-1
Fortuna Sittard
1-1
3W 1D 1L
1.2 GF · 0.8 GA
W
H
FC Groningen
2-0
FC Groningen
2-0
W
H
Heracles Almelo
2-0
Heracles Almelo
2-0
L
H
SC Heerenveen
0-3
SC Heerenveen
0-3
W
H
NAC Breda
1-0
NAC Breda
1-0
D
H
Fortuna Sittard
1-1
Fortuna Sittard
1-1
3W 1D 1L
1.8 GF · 1.6 GA
D
A
Fortuna Sittard
2-2
Fortuna Sittard
2-2
W
A
FC Utrecht
1-0
FC Utrecht
1-0
W
A
Feyenoord
4-3
Feyenoord
4-3
W
A
FC Volendam
1-0
FC Volendam
1-0
L
A
NEC Nijmegen
1-3
NEC Nijmegen
1-3
4W 1D 0L
2.2 GF · 1 GA
D
A
Fortuna Sittard
2-2
Fortuna Sittard
2-2
W
H
FC Groningen
2-0
FC Groningen
2-0
W
A
FC Utrecht
1-0
FC Utrecht
1-0
W
A
Feyenoord
4-3
Feyenoord
4-3
W
H
Heracles Almelo
2-0
Heracles Almelo
2-0
Heracles Almelo
0W 1D 4L
1.4 GF · 3 GA
L
A
NEC Nijmegen
1-4
NEC Nijmegen
1-4
L
A
Feyenoord
2-4
Feyenoord
2-4
L
A
Sparta Rotterdam
0-2
Sparta Rotterdam
0-2
L
A
PSV
3-4
PSV
3-4
D
A
Fortuna Sittard
1-1
Fortuna Sittard
1-1
2W 1D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.8 GA
W
H
Fortuna Sittard
2-1
Fortuna Sittard
2-1
L
H
FC Twente
0-2
FC Twente
0-2
L
H
SC Heerenveen
0-3
SC Heerenveen
0-3
D
H
Telstar
1-1
Telstar
1-1
W
H
Go Ahead Eagles
4-2
Go Ahead Eagles
4-2
0W 1D 4L
1.4 GF · 3 GA
L
A
NEC Nijmegen
1-4
NEC Nijmegen
1-4
L
A
Feyenoord
2-4
Feyenoord
2-4
L
A
Sparta Rotterdam
0-2
Sparta Rotterdam
0-2
L
A
PSV
3-4
PSV
3-4
D
A
Fortuna Sittard
1-1
Fortuna Sittard
1-1
1W 0D 4L
1 GF · 2.6 GA
L
A
NEC Nijmegen
1-4
NEC Nijmegen
1-4
W
H
Fortuna Sittard
2-1
Fortuna Sittard
2-1
L
A
Feyenoord
2-4
Feyenoord
2-4
L
H
FC Twente
0-2
FC Twente
0-2
L
A
Sparta Rotterdam
0-2
Sparta Rotterdam
0-2
Sidelined Players
Sparta Rotterdam
2 out
Giannino Vianello
injury
Vito van Crooij
injury
Heracles Almelo
2 out
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde
injury
Sem Scheperman
injury
Head-to-Head (Last 10)
Sparta Rotterdam
3
30%
Draws
5
50%
Heracles Almelo
2
20%
Avg Goals
2.1
BTTS
60%
League Signals
Predictability
55%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+8%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.0
HIGH
Draw Rate
24%
BTTS
55%
Over 2.5
58%
Final Words
Sparta Rotterdam enter this match in excellent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. Heracles Almelo have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5.