Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Value Assessment

Home Win
1.26
66% pred
-13.4%
Draw
6.39
20% pred
+4.6%
MARGINAL
Away Win
9.72
14% pred
+3.4%
MARGINAL
BTTS Yes 1.71 39%
BTTS No 2.08 51% MARGINAL

Key Insights

Title Race

Real Madrid

Real Madrid in position 2, 1 point behind leader - competing for title

High impact

Must Win

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano in position 17 with poor recent form (20% points) - must-win situation

High impact

Leaky Defense

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Real Madrid

Real Madrid has Kylian Mbappé ranked #1 in league scoring (22 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Match Normality

95%

Normal match expected

Match Info

Kickoff
Sun, Feb 1 2026 · 13:00
Venue
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)
Competition
La Liga · 22
Coaches
Arbeloa
Arbeloa
Real Madrid
Iñigo Pérez
Iñigo Pérez
Rayo Vallecano
Referee
Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos

Recent Form

Real Madrid Real Madrid
5W 0D 0L
3.4 GF · 0.6 GA
W H Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1
W H Monaco Monaco 6-1
W H Levante Levante 2-0
W H Real Betis Real Betis 5-1
W H Sevilla Sevilla 2-0
5W 0D 0L
3.4 GF · 0.6 GA
W H Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1
W H Monaco Monaco 6-1
W H Levante Levante 2-0
W H Real Betis Real Betis 5-1
W H Sevilla Sevilla 2-0
3W 0D 2L
2.2 GF · 2 GA
L A Benfica Benfica 2-4
W A Villarreal Villarreal 2-0
L A Albacete Albacete 2-3
W A Talavera CF Talavera CF 3-2
W A Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés 2-1
4W 0D 1L
2.8 GF · 1.2 GA
W H Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2-1
L A Benfica Benfica 2-4
W A Villarreal Villarreal 2-0
W H Monaco Monaco 6-1
W H Levante Levante 2-0
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
1W 0D 4L
0.8 GF · 2.4 GA
L A Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-2
L A Celta de Vigo Celta de Vigo 0-3
L A Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés 0-2
W A Granada Granada 3-1
L A Elche Elche 0-4
2W 2D 1L
1.4 GF · 1 GA
L H Osasuna Osasuna 1-3
W H Mallorca Mallorca 2-1
D H Getafe Getafe 1-1
W H Drita Drita 3-0
D H Real Betis Real Betis 0-0
1W 0D 4L
0.8 GF · 2.4 GA
L A Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-2
L A Celta de Vigo Celta de Vigo 0-3
L A Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés 0-2
W A Granada Granada 3-1
L A Elche Elche 0-4
1W 0D 4L
0.8 GF · 2.2 GA
L A Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-2
L H Osasuna Osasuna 1-3
L A Celta de Vigo Celta de Vigo 0-3
L A Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés 0-2
W H Mallorca Mallorca 2-1

Sidelined Players

Real Madrid Real Madrid 6 out
Rodrygo
Rodrygo
suspended
Raúl Asencio
Raúl Asencio
suspended
Éder Militão 
Éder Militão 
injury
Ferland Mendy 
Ferland Mendy 
injury
Antonio Rüdiger 
Antonio Rüdiger 
injury

+1 more

Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1 out
Joni Montiel
Joni Montiel
injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Real Madrid
5
50%
Draws
4
40%
Rayo Vallecano
1
10%
Avg Goals
2.6
BTTS
70%

League Signals

Predictability
46%
LOW
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.6
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
27%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
46%

Final Words

Real Madrid enter this match in excellent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. Rayo Vallecano have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5. Historically, Real Madrid have dominated this fixture.