Value Assessment
Home Win
1.30
56% pred
-21.3%
Draw
6.04
23% pred
+6.3%
VALUE
Away Win
8.33
22% pred
+9.5%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.54
50%
BTTS No
2.41
45%
MARGINAL
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Away Win
@
8.33
+9.5% edge
22% probability
Expected value: +0.79 units per bet
Confidence
Medium
66%
Key Insights
European Race
Real Madrid in position 7 - competing for European qualification
Medium impactRotation Risk
Real Madrid has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactMust Win
Monaco in position 19 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation
High impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 55.6% home win vs 76.9% market consensus - lower probability, 21.3% gap
Medium impactMatch Normality
70%
Minor irregularities detected
Match Info
Kickoff
Tue, Jan 20 2026
·
20:00
Venue
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
(Madrid)
Competition
Champions League
·
League Stage
, 7
Coaches
Arbeloa
Real Madrid
Sebastien Pocognoli
Monaco
Referee
Espen Eskås
Recent Form
Real Madrid
5W 0D 0L
3.4 GF · 0.6 GA
W
H
Rayo Vallecano
2-1
Rayo Vallecano
2-1
W
H
Monaco
6-1
Monaco
6-1
W
H
Levante
2-0
Levante
2-0
W
H
Real Betis
5-1
Real Betis
5-1
W
H
Sevilla
2-0
Sevilla
2-0
5W 0D 0L
3.4 GF · 0.6 GA
W
H
Rayo Vallecano
2-1
Rayo Vallecano
2-1
W
H
Monaco
6-1
Monaco
6-1
W
H
Levante
2-0
Levante
2-0
W
H
Real Betis
5-1
Real Betis
5-1
W
H
Sevilla
2-0
Sevilla
2-0
3W 0D 2L
2.2 GF · 2 GA
L
A
Benfica
2-4
Benfica
2-4
W
A
Villarreal
2-0
Villarreal
2-0
L
A
Albacete
2-3
Albacete
2-3
W
A
Talavera CF
3-2
Talavera CF
3-2
W
A
Deportivo Alavés
2-1
Deportivo Alavés
2-1
4W 0D 1L
2.8 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Rayo Vallecano
2-1
Rayo Vallecano
2-1
L
A
Benfica
2-4
Benfica
2-4
W
A
Villarreal
2-0
Villarreal
2-0
W
H
Monaco
6-1
Monaco
6-1
W
H
Levante
2-0
Levante
2-0
Monaco
0W 2D 3L
0.6 GF · 2 GA
D
A
Le Havre
0-0
Le Havre
0-0
L
A
Real Madrid
1-6
Real Madrid
1-6
L
A
Olympique Marseille
0-1
Olympique Marseille
0-1
L
A
Brest
0-1
Brest
0-1
D
A
Pafos FC
2-2
Pafos FC
2-2
2W 1D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Rennes
4-0
Rennes
4-0
D
H
Juventus
0-0
Juventus
0-0
L
H
Lorient
1-3
Lorient
1-3
L
H
Olympique Lyonnais
1-3
Olympique Lyonnais
1-3
W
H
Galatasaray
1-0
Galatasaray
1-0
0W 2D 3L
0.6 GF · 2 GA
D
A
Le Havre
0-0
Le Havre
0-0
L
A
Real Madrid
1-6
Real Madrid
1-6
L
A
Olympique Marseille
0-1
Olympique Marseille
0-1
L
A
Brest
0-1
Brest
0-1
D
A
Pafos FC
2-2
Pafos FC
2-2
1W 2D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.8 GA
W
H
Rennes
4-0
Rennes
4-0
D
H
Juventus
0-0
Juventus
0-0
D
A
Le Havre
0-0
Le Havre
0-0
L
A
Real Madrid
1-6
Real Madrid
1-6
L
H
Lorient
1-3
Lorient
1-3
Sidelined Players
Real Madrid
6 out
Rodrygo
suspended
Raúl Asencio
suspended
Éder Militão
injury
Ferland Mendy
injury
Antonio Rüdiger
injury
+1 more
Monaco
8 out
Wilfried Singo
injury
Mohammed Salisu
injury
Christian Mawissa
injury
Eric Dier
injury
Wout Faes
injury
+3 more
Head-to-Head (Last 3)
Real Madrid
2
67%
Draws
0
0%
Monaco
1
33%
Avg Goals
5.7
BTTS
100%
League Signals
Predictability
57%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.0
HIGH
Draw Rate
20%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
57%
Final Words
Real Madrid enter this match in excellent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. Monaco have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5.