Value Assessment
Home Win
5.06
37% pred
+17.4%
VALUE
Draw
3.35
29% pred
-0.8%
Away Win
1.76
34% pred
-23.0%
BTTS Yes
2.27
40%
BTTS No
1.61
50%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Home Win
@
5.06
+17.4% edge
37% probability
Expected value: +0.88 units per bet
Confidence
Low
56%
Key Insights
Must Win
Panathinaikos in position 20 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation
High impactStreak Watch
Panathinaikos unbeaten in 5 games (2 wins, 3 draws) - solid defensive form
Medium impactBTTS Tendency
Panathinaikos matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes
Medium impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 33.8% away win vs 56.8% market consensus - lower probability, 23.0% gap
Medium impactMatch Normality
90%
Normal match expected
Match Info
Kickoff
Thu, Jan 29 2026
·
20:00
Venue
Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis
(Athens)
Competition
Europa League
·
League Stage
, 8
Coaches
Rafael Benítez Maudes
Panathinaikos
Gian Gasperini
Roma
Referee
Juan Martínez Munuera
Recent Form
Panathinaikos
2W 2D 1L
1.2 GF · 1 GA
D
H
Roma
1-1
Roma
1-1
D
H
Viktoria Plzeň
0-0
Viktoria Plzeň
0-0
W
H
Sturm Graz
2-1
Sturm Graz
2-1
L
H
Go Ahead Eagles
1-2
Go Ahead Eagles
1-2
W
H
Samsunspor
2-1
Samsunspor
2-1
2W 2D 1L
1.2 GF · 1 GA
D
H
Roma
1-1
Roma
1-1
D
H
Viktoria Plzeň
0-0
Viktoria Plzeň
0-0
W
H
Sturm Graz
2-1
Sturm Graz
2-1
L
H
Go Ahead Eagles
1-2
Go Ahead Eagles
1-2
W
H
Samsunspor
2-1
Samsunspor
2-1
2W 2D 1L
1.4 GF · 1 GA
D
A
Ferencvárosi
1-1
Ferencvárosi
1-1
W
A
Malmö FF
1-0
Malmö FF
1-0
L
A
Feyenoord
1-3
Feyenoord
1-3
W
A
Young Boys
4-1
Young Boys
4-1
D
A
Samsunspor
0-0
Samsunspor
0-0
2W 3D 0L
1 GF · 0.6 GA
D
H
Roma
1-1
Roma
1-1
D
A
Ferencvárosi
1-1
Ferencvárosi
1-1
D
H
Viktoria Plzeň
0-0
Viktoria Plzeň
0-0
W
H
Sturm Graz
2-1
Sturm Graz
2-1
W
A
Malmö FF
1-0
Malmö FF
1-0
Roma
2W 1D 2L
1 GF · 0.6 GA
L
A
Udinese
0-1
Udinese
0-1
D
A
Panathinaikos
1-1
Panathinaikos
1-1
W
A
Torino
2-0
Torino
2-0
W
A
Lecce
2-0
Lecce
2-0
L
A
Atalanta
0-1
Atalanta
0-1
3W 1D 1L
2 GF · 1 GA
D
H
AC Milan
1-1
AC Milan
1-1
W
H
VfB Stuttgart
2-0
VfB Stuttgart
2-0
L
H
Torino
2-3
Torino
2-3
W
H
Sassuolo
2-0
Sassuolo
2-0
W
H
Genoa
3-1
Genoa
3-1
2W 1D 2L
1 GF · 0.6 GA
L
A
Udinese
0-1
Udinese
0-1
D
A
Panathinaikos
1-1
Panathinaikos
1-1
W
A
Torino
2-0
Torino
2-0
W
A
Lecce
2-0
Lecce
2-0
L
A
Atalanta
0-1
Atalanta
0-1
2W 2D 1L
1.2 GF · 0.6 GA
L
A
Udinese
0-1
Udinese
0-1
D
A
Panathinaikos
1-1
Panathinaikos
1-1
D
H
AC Milan
1-1
AC Milan
1-1
W
H
VfB Stuttgart
2-0
VfB Stuttgart
2-0
W
A
Torino
2-0
Torino
2-0
Sidelined Players
Panathinaikos
13 out
Giannis Kotsiras
injury
Ilias Sgouros
suspended
Pedro Chirivella
injury
Georgios Kyriopoulos
injury
Christos Kryparakos
suspended
+8 more
Roma
8 out
Paulo Dybala
injury
Stephan El Shaarawy
injury
Mario Hermoso
injury
Manu Koné
injury
Artem Dovbyk
injury
+3 more
Head-to-Head (Last 3)
Panathinaikos
2
67%
Draws
1
33%
Roma
0
0%
Avg Goals
4.0
BTTS
100%
League Signals
Predictability
56%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+12%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.9
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
21%
BTTS
53%
Over 2.5
56%
Final Words
Historically, Panathinaikos have dominated this fixture.