Value Assessment
Home Win
3.72
39% pred
+12.6%
VALUE
Draw
3.84
24% pred
-1.7%
Away Win
1.91
36% pred
-16.1%
BTTS Yes
1.51
52%
BTTS No
2.52
42%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Home Win
@
3.72
+12.6% edge
39% probability
Expected value: +0.47 units per bet
Confidence
Medium
69%
Key Insights
European Race
Liverpool in position 4 - competing for European qualification
Medium impactRotation Risk
Olympique Marseille has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactRotation Risk
Liverpool has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactMust Win
Olympique Marseille in position 19 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation
High impactStreak Watch
Liverpool unbeaten in 5 games (2 wins, 3 draws) - solid defensive form
Medium impactMatch Normality
70%
Minor irregularities detected
Match Info
Kickoff
Wed, Jan 21 2026
·
20:00
Venue
Stade Vélodrome
(Marseille)
Competition
Champions League
·
League Stage
, 7
Coaches
Roberto De Zerbi
Olympique Marseille
Arne Slot
Liverpool
Referee
Slavko Vinčić
Recent Form
Olympique Marseille
2W 1D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.6 GA
W
H
Lens
3-1
Lens
3-1
L
H
Liverpool
0-3
Liverpool
0-3
L
H
Nantes
0-2
Nantes
0-2
W
H
Monaco
1-0
Monaco
1-0
D
H
Toulouse
2-2
Toulouse
2-2
2W 1D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.6 GA
W
H
Lens
3-1
Lens
3-1
L
H
Liverpool
0-3
Liverpool
0-3
L
H
Nantes
0-2
Nantes
0-2
W
H
Monaco
1-0
Monaco
1-0
D
H
Toulouse
2-2
Toulouse
2-2
2W 1D 2L
2 GF · 2 GA
D
A
Paris
2-2
Paris
2-2
L
A
Club Brugge
0-3
Club Brugge
0-3
W
A
Angers SCO
5-2
Angers SCO
5-2
W
A
Union Saint-Gilloise
3-2
Union Saint-Gilloise
3-2
L
A
LOSC Lille
0-1
LOSC Lille
0-1
2W 1D 2L
2 GF · 2.2 GA
D
A
Paris
2-2
Paris
2-2
L
A
Club Brugge
0-3
Club Brugge
0-3
W
H
Lens
3-1
Lens
3-1
L
H
Liverpool
0-3
Liverpool
0-3
W
A
Angers SCO
5-2
Angers SCO
5-2
Liverpool
2W 2D 1L
1.8 GF · 1.2 GA
L
A
AFC Bournemouth
2-3
AFC Bournemouth
2-3
W
A
Olympique Marseille
3-0
Olympique Marseille
3-0
D
A
Arsenal
0-0
Arsenal
0-0
D
A
Fulham
2-2
Fulham
2-2
W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2-1
Tottenham Hotspur
2-1
3W 2D 0L
3 GF · 0.6 GA
W
H
Newcastle United
4-1
Newcastle United
4-1
W
H
Qarabağ
6-0
Qarabağ
6-0
D
H
Burnley
1-1
Burnley
1-1
W
H
Barnsley
4-1
Barnsley
4-1
D
H
Leeds United
0-0
Leeds United
0-0
2W 2D 1L
1.8 GF · 1.2 GA
L
A
AFC Bournemouth
2-3
AFC Bournemouth
2-3
W
A
Olympique Marseille
3-0
Olympique Marseille
3-0
D
A
Arsenal
0-0
Arsenal
0-0
D
A
Fulham
2-2
Fulham
2-2
W
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2-1
Tottenham Hotspur
2-1
3W 1D 1L
3.2 GF · 1 GA
W
H
Newcastle United
4-1
Newcastle United
4-1
W
H
Qarabağ
6-0
Qarabağ
6-0
L
A
AFC Bournemouth
2-3
AFC Bournemouth
2-3
W
A
Olympique Marseille
3-0
Olympique Marseille
3-0
D
H
Burnley
1-1
Burnley
1-1
Sidelined Players
Olympique Marseille
3 out
Amine Harit
injury
Emerson
injury
Chancel Mbemba
suspension
Liverpool
6 out
Alexander Isak
injury
Stefan Bajcetic
injury
Jarell Quansah
injury
Dominik Szoboszlai
injury
Conor Bradley
injury
+1 more
Head-to-Head (Last 7)
Olympique Marseille
2
29%
Draws
1
14%
Liverpool
4
57%
Avg Goals
2.4
BTTS
43%
League Signals
Predictability
57%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.0
HIGH
Draw Rate
20%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
57%