Newcastle United vs PSV - Champions League Prediction

Value Assessment

Home Win

1.32

38% pred

-37.5%

Draw

5.80

22% pred

+5.1%

VALUE

Away Win

8.25

39% pred

+27.2%

VALUE

BTTS Yes 1.56 59%

BTTS No 2.36 35%

Best Opportunity

VALUE

Away Win @ 8.25

+27.2% edge 39% probability

Expected value: +2.25 units per bet

Confidence

Medium

74%

Key Insights

European Race

Newcastle United in position 7 - competing for European qualification

Medium impact

Rotation Risk

Newcastle United has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Medium impact

Rotation Risk

PSV has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Medium impact

Must Win

PSV in position 22 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation

High impact

Streak Watch

Newcastle United unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) - solid defensive form

Medium impact

Home Fortress

Newcastle United unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (5 wins, 3 draws) - strong home advantage

Medium impact

Away Specialist

PSV exceptional away form: 6 wins in last 8 away matches (75% win rate)

Medium impact

High Scoring

PSV involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 38.3% home win vs 75.8% market consensus - lower probability, 37.5% gap

High impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 39.4% away win vs 12.1% market consensus - higher probability, 27.2% gap

High impact

Match Normality

45%

High risk match

Match Info

Kickoff

Wed, Jan 21 2026 · 20:00

Venue

St. James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne)

Competition

Champions League · League Stage , 7

Coaches

Eddie Howe

Newcastle United

Peter Bosz

PSV

Referee

Daniel Siebert

Recent Form

Newcastle United

2W 1D 2L

2 GF · 2 GA

L H

Aston Villa 0-2

W H PSV

PSV 3-0

L H

Manchester City 0-2

D H

AFC Bournemouth 3-3

W H

Leeds United 4-3

2W 1D 2L

2 GF · 2 GA

L H

Aston Villa 0-2

W H PSV

PSV 3-0

L H

Manchester City 0-2

D H

AFC Bournemouth 3-3

W H

Leeds United 4-3

1W 2D 2L

1 GF · 1.4 GA

L A

Liverpool 1-4

D A

Paris Saint Germain 1-1

D A

Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-0

W A Burnley

Burnley 3-1

L A

Manchester United 0-1

1W 2D 2L

1 GF · 1.4 GA

L A

Liverpool 1-4

D A

Paris Saint Germain 1-1

L H

Aston Villa 0-2

W H PSV

PSV 3-0

D A

Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-0

PSV

4W 0D 1L

2 GF · 1.2 GA

L A

Newcastle United 0-3

W A

Fortuna Sittard 2-1

W A

FC Utrecht 2-1

W A

SC Heerenveen 2-0

W A

Liverpool 4-1

3W 1D 1L

3 GF · 1.6 GA

W H

Feyenoord 3-0

L H

FC Bayern München 1-2

D H

NAC Breda 2-2

W H

Excelsior 5-1

W H

Heracles Almelo 4-3

4W 0D 1L

2 GF · 1.2 GA

L A

Newcastle United 0-3

W A

Fortuna Sittard 2-1

W A

FC Utrecht 2-1

W A

SC Heerenveen 2-0

W A

Liverpool 4-1

2W 1D 2L

1.6 GF · 1.6 GA

W H

Feyenoord 3-0

L H

FC Bayern München 1-2

D H

NAC Breda 2-2

L A

Newcastle United 0-3

W A

Fortuna Sittard 2-1

Sidelined Players

Newcastle United 3 out

Fabian Schär

injury

Tino Livramento

injury

Sven Botman

injury

PSV 7 out

Alassane Pléa

injury

Armando Obispo

injury

Myron Boadu

injury

Nick Olij

injury

Ricardo Pepi

injury

+2 more

Head-to-Head (Last 3)

Newcastle United

2

67%

Draws

1

33%

PSV

0

0%

Avg Goals

2.7

BTTS

67%

League Signals

Predictability

57%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+9%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

3.0

HIGH

Draw Rate

20%

BTTS

51%

Over 2.5

57%

Final Words

Newcastle United have struggled recently, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches. Historically, Newcastle United have dominated this fixture.