Newcastle United vs Aston Villa - Premier League Prediction

Value Assessment

Home Win

2.13

47% pred

-0.1%

Draw

3.59

20% pred

-8.3%

Away Win

3.26

34% pred

+2.9%

BTTS Yes 1.53 56%

BTTS No 2.43 34%

Key Insights

Title Race

Aston Villa in position 3, 4 points behind leader - competing for title

Medium impact

Rotation Risk

Newcastle United has 5 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

High impact

Rotation Risk

Aston Villa has 5 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

High impact

Away Specialist

Aston Villa exceptional away form: 6 wins in last 8 away matches (75% win rate)

Medium impact

Upset Alert

Newcastle United (position 9) is favorite despite being 6 places below Aston Villa (position 3) - potential upset or market overreaction

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Newcastle United has Bruno Guimarães ranked #7 in league scoring (8 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Aston Villa has Ollie Watkins ranked #10 in league scoring (8 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Match Normality

45%

High risk match

Match Info

Kickoff

Sun, Jan 25 2026 · 14:00

Venue

St. James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne)

Competition

Premier League · 23

Coaches

Eddie Howe

Newcastle United

Unai Emery

Aston Villa

Referee

Jarred Gillett

Related Coverage

League season story Newcastle United form report Aston Villa form report

Recent Form

Newcastle United

1W 1D 3L

1.6 GF · 2 GA

L H

Brentford 2-3

L H

Aston Villa 0-2

W H PSV

PSV 3-0

L H

Manchester City 0-2

D H

AFC Bournemouth 3-3

1W 1D 3L

1.6 GF · 2 GA

L H

Brentford 2-3

L H

Aston Villa 0-2

W H PSV

PSV 3-0

L H

Manchester City 0-2

D H

AFC Bournemouth 3-3

1W 2D 2L

1.2 GF · 1.8 GA

L A

Manchester City 1-3

L A

Liverpool 1-4

D A

Paris Saint Germain 1-1

D A

Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-0

W A Burnley

Burnley 3-1

0W 1D 4L

1 GF · 2.6 GA

L H

Brentford 2-3

L A

Manchester City 1-3

L A

Liverpool 1-4

D A

Paris Saint Germain 1-1

L H

Aston Villa 0-2

Aston Villa

3W 2D 0L

1.2 GF · 0.4 GA

D A

AFC Bournemouth 1-1

W A

Newcastle United 2-0

W A

Fenerbahçe 1-0

W A

Tottenham Hotspur 2-1

D A

Crystal Palace 0-0

3W 0D 2L

1.6 GF · 1.2 GA

L H

Brentford 0-1

W H

Salzburg 3-2

L H Everton

Everton 0-1

W H

Nottingham Forest 3-1

W H

Manchester United 2-1

3W 2D 0L

1.2 GF · 0.4 GA

D A

AFC Bournemouth 1-1

W A

Newcastle United 2-0

W A

Fenerbahçe 1-0

W A

Tottenham Hotspur 2-1

D A

Crystal Palace 0-0

3W 1D 1L

1.4 GF · 0.8 GA

D A

AFC Bournemouth 1-1

L H

Brentford 0-1

W H

Salzburg 3-2

W A

Newcastle United 2-0

W A

Fenerbahçe 1-0

Sidelined Players

Newcastle United 4 out

Emil Krafth

suspended

Tino Livramento

injury

Fabian Schär

injury

Sven Botman

injury

Aston Villa 4 out

John McGinn

injury

Youri Tielemans

injury

Andrés García

injury

Boubacar Kamara

injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Newcastle United

4

40%

Draws

1

10%

Aston Villa

5

50%

Avg Goals

3.0

BTTS

30%

League Signals

Predictability

46%

LOW

Home Bias

+5%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

2.9

MEDIUM

Draw Rate

23%

BTTS

54%

Over 2.5

56%

Final Words

Newcastle United have struggled recently, winning just 0 of their last 5 matches.