Nacional vs Rio Ave - Liga Portugal Prediction

Value Assessment

Home Win

1.98

29% pred

-21.5%

Draw

3.50

30% pred

+1.9%

Away Win

3.63

41% pred

+13.0%

VALUE

BTTS Yes 1.68 52%

BTTS No 2.11 45%

Best Opportunity

VALUE

Away Win @ 3.63

+13.0% edge 41% probability

Expected value: +0.47 units per bet

Confidence

Medium

71%

Key Insights

BTTS Tendency

Nacional matches frequently see both teams score: BTTS in 6 of last 8 matches (75%) - favors BTTS Yes

Medium impact

Leaky Defense

Rio Ave has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Nacional has Jesús Ramírez ranked #4 in league scoring (13 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Rio Ave has Clayton ranked #6 in league scoring (10 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 29.0% home win vs 50.5% market consensus - lower probability, 21.5% gap

Medium impact

Match Normality

95%

Normal match expected

Match Info

Kickoff

Sun, Jan 25 2026 · 15:30

Venue

Estádio da Madeira (Ilha da Madeira)

Competition

Liga Portugal · 19

Coaches

Tiago Carvalho Margarido

Nacional

Sotiris Silaidopoulos

Rio Ave

Referee

Iancu Ioan Vasilica

Related Coverage

League season story Nacional form report Rio Ave form report

Recent Form

Nacional

2W 2D 1L

2.2 GF · 1.2 GA

D H

Casa Pia 0-0

W H Rio Ave

Rio Ave 4-0

D H

Santa Clara 3-3

W H Tondela

Tondela 3-1

L H Benfica

Benfica 1-2

2W 2D 1L

2.2 GF · 1.2 GA

D H

Casa Pia 0-0

W H Rio Ave

Rio Ave 4-0

D H

Santa Clara 3-3

W H Tondela

Tondela 3-1

L H Benfica

Benfica 1-2

0W 1D 4L

1 GF · 1.8 GA

L A

Sporting CP 1-2

L A

Gil Vicente 1-2

L A

Vitória Guimarães 1-2

D A AVS

AVS 2-2

L A Alverca

Alverca 0-1

1W 2D 2L

1.8 GF · 1.4 GA

D H

Casa Pia 0-0

L A

Sporting CP 1-2

W H Rio Ave

Rio Ave 4-0

L A

Gil Vicente 1-2

D H

Santa Clara 3-3

Rio Ave

1W 1D 3L

0.8 GF · 2.8 GA

L A

Sporting Braga 0-3

L A

Nacional 0-4

L A

Sporting CP 0-4

D A

Gil Vicente 2-2

W A AVS

AVS 2-1

1W 1D 3L

0.8 GF · 1.6 GA

L H Arouca

Arouca 0-3

L H Benfica

Benfica 0-2

W H

Casa Pia 3-1

L H

Vitória Guimarães 0-1

D H

Santa Clara 1-1

1W 1D 3L

0.8 GF · 2.8 GA

L A

Sporting Braga 0-3

L A

Nacional 0-4

L A

Sporting CP 0-4

D A

Gil Vicente 2-2

W A AVS

AVS 2-1

1W 0D 4L

0.6 GF · 2.6 GA

L A

Sporting Braga 0-3

L H Arouca

Arouca 0-3

L A

Nacional 0-4

L H Benfica

Benfica 0-2

W H

Casa Pia 3-1

Sidelined Players

Nacional 3 out

Ivanildo Fernandes

injury

Ulisses

injury

Filipe Soares

injury

Rio Ave 1 out

Omar Richards

injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Nacional

1

10%

Draws

4

40%

Rio Ave

5

50%

Avg Goals

3.0

BTTS

60%

League Signals

Predictability

55%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+7%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

2.6

MEDIUM

Draw Rate

24%

BTTS

49%

Over 2.5

49%

Final Words

Nacional have struggled recently, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches. Rio Ave have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5. The head-to-head favors Rio Ave in recent meetings.