Just Football Predictions

Monaco vs Lorient

Full Time
Ligue 1 Stade Louis II.
Monaco

Monaco

1
-
3
Lorient

Lorient

Value Assessment Best Opportunity Key Insights Match Context Recent Form Sidelined Head-to-Head League Signals Final Words

Value Assessment

Home Win
1.64
38% pred
-23.1%
Draw
4.18
31% pred
+6.9%
VALUE
Away Win
4.74
31% pred
+10.2%
VALUE
BTTS Yes 1.60 47%
BTTS No 2.25 48% MARGINAL

Key Insights

Streak Watch

Lorient

Lorient unbeaten in 5 games (2 wins, 3 draws) - solid defensive form

Medium impact

Away Struggles

Lorient

Lorient winless in last 8 away matches (3 draws, 5 losses) - poor away record

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 37.8% home win vs 61.0% market consensus - lower probability, 23.1% gap

Medium impact

Match Normality

95%

Normal match expected

Match Info

Kickoff
Fri, Jan 16 2026 · 18:00
Venue
Stade Louis II. (Monaco)
Competition
Ligue 1 · 18
Coaches
Sebastien Pocognoli
Sebastien Pocognoli
Monaco
Olivier Pantaloni
Olivier Pantaloni
Lorient
Referee
Willy Delajod Willy Delajod
Related Coverage
League season story Monaco form report Lorient form report

Recent Form

Monaco Monaco
2W 1D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.2 GA
W H Rennes Rennes 4-0
D H Juventus Juventus 0-0
L H Lorient Lorient 1-3
L H Olympique Lyonnais Olympique Lyonnais 1-3
W H Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-0
2W 1D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.2 GA
W H Rennes Rennes 4-0
D H Juventus Juventus 0-0
L H Lorient Lorient 1-3
L H Olympique Lyonnais Olympique Lyonnais 1-3
W H Galatasaray Galatasaray 1-0
0W 2D 3L
0.2 GF · 1.6 GA
D A Nice Nice 0-0
D A Le Havre Le Havre 0-0
L A Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-6
L A Olympique Marseille Olympique Marseille 0-1
L A Brest Brest 0-1
1W 3D 1L
1 GF · 1.2 GA
D A Nice Nice 0-0
W H Rennes Rennes 4-0
D H Juventus Juventus 0-0
D A Le Havre Le Havre 0-0
L A Real Madrid Real Madrid 1-6
Lorient Lorient
2W 2D 1L
1.2 GF · 0.8 GA
L A Brest Brest 0-2
W A Rennes Rennes 2-0
W A Monaco Monaco 3-1
D A Strasbourg Strasbourg 0-0
D A Nantes Nantes 1-1
3W 2D 0L
1.6 GF · 0.8 GA
W H Nantes Nantes 2-1
D H Metz Metz 1-1
W H Olympique Lyonnais Olympique Lyonnais 1-0
W H Nice Nice 3-1
D H Toulouse Toulouse 1-1
2W 2D 1L
1.2 GF · 0.8 GA
L A Brest Brest 0-2
W A Rennes Rennes 2-0
W A Monaco Monaco 3-1
D A Strasbourg Strasbourg 0-0
D A Nantes Nantes 1-1
3W 1D 1L
1.6 GF · 1 GA
L A Brest Brest 0-2
W H Nantes Nantes 2-1
W A Rennes Rennes 2-0
W A Monaco Monaco 3-1
D H Metz Metz 1-1

Sidelined Players

Monaco Monaco 13 out
Christian Mawissa
Christian Mawissa
injury
Paris Brunner
Paris Brunner
suspended
Wout Faes
Wout Faes
injury
Lukas Hradecky
Lukas Hradecky
injury
Takumi Minamino
Takumi Minamino
suspended

+8 more

Lorient Lorient 3 out
Sambou Soumano
Sambou Soumano
injury
Abdoulaye Faye
Abdoulaye Faye
injury
Arthur Avom
Arthur Avom
injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Monaco
2
20%
Draws
5
50%
Lorient
3
30%
Avg Goals
3.6
BTTS
80%

League Signals

Predictability
54%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+5%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.8
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
25%
BTTS
56%
Over 2.5
54%

Final Words

Monaco have struggled recently, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches.