Value Assessment
Home Win
3.05
31% pred
-1.5%
Draw
3.66
21% pred
-6.5%
Away Win
2.20
48% pred
+2.4%
BTTS Yes
1.43
48%
BTTS No
2.72
44%
VALUE
Key Insights
Title Race
Manchester City in position 2, 6 points behind leader - competing for title
Medium impactEuropean Race
Manchester United in position 5 - competing for European qualification
Medium impactRotation Risk
Manchester City has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 47.6% BTTS vs 69.9% market consensus - lower probability, 22.4% gap
Medium impactMatch Normality
80%
Minor irregularities detected
Match Info
Kickoff
Sat, Jan 17 2026
·
12:30
Venue
Old Trafford
(Manchester)
Competition
Premier League
·
22
Coaches
Michael Carrick
Manchester United
Pep Guardiola
Manchester City
Referee
Anthony Taylor
Related Coverage
Recent Form
Manchester United
3W 1D 1L
1.8 GF · 1 GA
W
H
Tottenham Hotspur
2-0
Tottenham Hotspur
2-0
W
H
Fulham
3-2
Fulham
3-2
W
H
Manchester City
2-0
Manchester City
2-0
L
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-2
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-2
D
H
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1-1
3W 1D 1L
1.8 GF · 1 GA
W
H
Tottenham Hotspur
2-0
Tottenham Hotspur
2-0
W
H
Fulham
3-2
Fulham
3-2
W
H
Manchester City
2-0
Manchester City
2-0
L
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-2
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-2
D
H
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1-1
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1-1
1W 3D 1L
1.6 GF · 1.6 GA
D
A
West Ham United
1-1
West Ham United
1-1
W
A
Arsenal
3-2
Arsenal
3-2
D
A
Burnley
2-2
Burnley
2-2
D
A
Leeds United
1-1
Leeds United
1-1
L
A
Aston Villa
1-2
Aston Villa
1-2
4W 1D 0L
2.2 GF · 1 GA
D
A
West Ham United
1-1
West Ham United
1-1
W
H
Tottenham Hotspur
2-0
Tottenham Hotspur
2-0
W
H
Fulham
3-2
Fulham
3-2
W
A
Arsenal
3-2
Arsenal
3-2
W
H
Manchester City
2-0
Manchester City
2-0
Manchester City
2W 1D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.6 GA
W
A
Liverpool
2-1
Liverpool
2-1
D
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2-2
Tottenham Hotspur
2-2
L
A
Bodø / Glimt
1-3
Bodø / Glimt
1-3
L
A
Manchester United
0-2
Manchester United
0-2
W
A
Newcastle United
2-0
Newcastle United
2-0
4W 1D 0L
3.6 GF · 0.6 GA
W
H
Newcastle United
3-1
Newcastle United
3-1
W
H
Galatasaray
2-0
Galatasaray
2-0
W
H
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-0
W
H
Exeter City
10-1
Exeter City
10-1
D
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-1
2W 1D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.6 GA
W
A
Liverpool
2-1
Liverpool
2-1
D
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2-2
Tottenham Hotspur
2-2
L
A
Bodø / Glimt
1-3
Bodø / Glimt
1-3
L
A
Manchester United
0-2
Manchester United
0-2
W
A
Newcastle United
2-0
Newcastle United
2-0
4W 1D 0L
2.2 GF · 0.8 GA
W
A
Liverpool
2-1
Liverpool
2-1
W
H
Newcastle United
3-1
Newcastle United
3-1
D
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2-2
Tottenham Hotspur
2-2
W
H
Galatasaray
2-0
Galatasaray
2-0
W
H
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-0
Sidelined Players
Manchester United
3 out
Patrick Dorgu
injury
Mason Mount
injury
Matthijs de Ligt
injury
Manchester City
7 out
Sverre Nypan
suspended
Mateo Kovacic
injury
Josko Gvardiol
injury
Jérémy Doku
injury
John Stones
injury
+2 more
Head-to-Head (Last 10)
Manchester United
4
40%
Draws
1
10%
Manchester City
5
50%
Avg Goals
3.3
BTTS
60%
League Signals
Predictability
46%
LOW
Home Bias
+5%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.9
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
23%
BTTS
54%
Over 2.5
56%
Final Words
Manchester United enter this match in excellent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. Manchester City arrive in strong form with 4 wins from 5 games.