Value Assessment
Home Win
1.22
46% pred
-36.0%
Draw
7.24
24% pred
+9.9%
VALUE
Away Win
10.05
30% pred
+20.4%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.57
47%
BTTS No
2.35
41%
Key Insights
Rotation Risk
Manchester City has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactHome Fortress
Manchester City unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (6 wins, 2 draws) - strong home advantage
Medium impactTop Scorer
Manchester City has Erling Haaland ranked #5 in league scoring (6 goals) - strong attacking threat
Medium impactTop Scorer
Galatasaray has Victor Osimhen ranked #4 in league scoring (6 goals) - strong attacking threat
Medium impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 46.0% home win vs 82.0% market consensus - lower probability, 36.0% gap
High impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 30.3% away win vs 10.0% market consensus - higher probability, 20.4% gap
Medium impactMatch Normality
55%
Significant concerns
Match Info
Kickoff
Wed, Jan 28 2026
·
20:00
Venue
Etihad Stadium
(Manchester)
Competition
Champions League
·
League Stage
, 8
Coaches
Pep Guardiola
Manchester City
Okan Buruk
Galatasaray
Referee
Alejandro José Hernández Hernández
Recent Form
Manchester City
3W 2D 0L
3.2 GF · 0.6 GA
W
H
Galatasaray
2-0
Galatasaray
2-0
W
H
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-0
W
H
Exeter City
10-1
Exeter City
10-1
D
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-1
D
H
Chelsea
1-1
Chelsea
1-1
3W 2D 0L
3.2 GF · 0.6 GA
W
H
Galatasaray
2-0
Galatasaray
2-0
W
H
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-0
W
H
Exeter City
10-1
Exeter City
10-1
D
H
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
1-1
D
H
Chelsea
1-1
Chelsea
1-1
1W 2D 2L
1 GF · 1.4 GA
D
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2-2
Tottenham Hotspur
2-2
L
A
Bodø / Glimt
1-3
Bodø / Glimt
1-3
L
A
Manchester United
0-2
Manchester United
0-2
W
A
Newcastle United
2-0
Newcastle United
2-0
D
A
Sunderland
0-0
Sunderland
0-0
2W 1D 2L
1.4 GF · 1.4 GA
D
A
Tottenham Hotspur
2-2
Tottenham Hotspur
2-2
W
H
Galatasaray
2-0
Galatasaray
2-0
W
H
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-0
Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-0
L
A
Bodø / Glimt
1-3
Bodø / Glimt
1-3
L
A
Manchester United
0-2
Manchester United
0-2
Galatasaray
2W 1D 2L
1.6 GF · 1.2 GA
L
A
Manchester City
0-2
Manchester City
0-2
W
A
Fatih Karagümrük
3-1
Fatih Karagümrük
3-1
W
A
Antalyaspor
4-1
Antalyaspor
4-1
L
A
Monaco
0-1
Monaco
0-1
D
A
Fenerbahçe
1-1
Fenerbahçe
1-1
3W 2D 0L
2.4 GF · 0.8 GA
W
H
Kayserispor
4-0
Kayserispor
4-0
D
H
Atlético Madrid
1-1
Atlético Madrid
1-1
D
H
Gaziantep F.K.
1-1
Gaziantep F.K.
1-1
W
H
Kasımpaşa
3-0
Kasımpaşa
3-0
W
H
Samsunspor
3-2
Samsunspor
3-2
2W 1D 2L
1.6 GF · 1.2 GA
L
A
Manchester City
0-2
Manchester City
0-2
W
A
Fatih Karagümrük
3-1
Fatih Karagümrük
3-1
W
A
Antalyaspor
4-1
Antalyaspor
4-1
L
A
Monaco
0-1
Monaco
0-1
D
A
Fenerbahçe
1-1
Fenerbahçe
1-1
2W 2D 1L
1.8 GF · 1 GA
W
H
Kayserispor
4-0
Kayserispor
4-0
L
A
Manchester City
0-2
Manchester City
0-2
W
A
Fatih Karagümrük
3-1
Fatih Karagümrük
3-1
D
H
Atlético Madrid
1-1
Atlético Madrid
1-1
D
H
Gaziantep F.K.
1-1
Gaziantep F.K.
1-1
Sidelined Players
Manchester City
5 out
Rúben Dias
injury
Mateo Kovacic
injury
Josko Gvardiol
injury
John Stones
injury
Savinho
injury
Galatasaray
9 out
Mario Lemina
suspended
Gabriel Sara
injury
Leroy Sané
injury
Gabriel Sara
injury
Mario Lemina
suspended
+4 more
Head-to-Head (Last 1)
Manchester City
1
100%
Draws
0
0%
Galatasaray
0
0%
Avg Goals
2.0
BTTS
0%
League Signals
Predictability
57%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.0
HIGH
Draw Rate
20%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
57%