Heracles Almelo vs FC Twente - Eredivisie Prediction

Value Assessment

Home Win

6.09

21% pred

+5.0%

MARGINAL

Draw

4.44

32% pred

+9.2%

VALUE

Away Win

1.48

47% pred

-20.7%

BTTS Yes 1.73 50%

BTTS No 2.04 45%

Best Opportunity

VALUE

Draw @ 4.44

+9.2% edge 32% probability

Expected value: +0.41 units per bet

Confidence

Medium

63%

Key Insights

Relegation Zone

Heracles Almelo in position 18 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop

High impact

European Race

FC Twente in position 6 - competing for European qualification

Medium impact

Must Win

Heracles Almelo in position 18 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation

High impact

Streak Watch

Heracles Almelo without a win in 5 games (1 draws, 4 losses) - struggling for results

High impact

Streak Watch

FC Twente unbeaten in 5 games (2 wins, 3 draws) - solid defensive form

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 46.9% away win vs 67.6% market consensus - lower probability, 20.7% gap

Medium impact

Match Normality

90%

Normal match expected

Match Info

Kickoff

Sun, Jan 18 2026 · 13:30

Venue

Asito Stadion (Almelo)

Competition

Eredivisie · 19

Coaches

Ernest Faber

Heracles Almelo

John van den Brom

FC Twente

Referee

Sander van der Eijk

Related Coverage

League season story Heracles Almelo form report FC Twente form report

Recent Form

Heracles Almelo

2W 1D 2L

1.4 GF · 1.8 GA

W H

Fortuna Sittard 2-1

L H

FC Twente 0-2

L H

SC Heerenveen 0-3

D H Telstar

Telstar 1-1

W H

Go Ahead Eagles 4-2

2W 1D 2L

1.4 GF · 1.8 GA

W H

Fortuna Sittard 2-1

L H

FC Twente 0-2

L H

SC Heerenveen 0-3

D H Telstar

Telstar 1-1

W H

Go Ahead Eagles 4-2

0W 1D 4L

1.4 GF · 3 GA

L A

NEC Nijmegen 1-4

L A

Feyenoord 2-4

L A

Sparta Rotterdam 0-2

L A PSV

PSV 3-4

D A

Fortuna Sittard 1-1

1W 0D 4L

1 GF · 2.6 GA

L A

NEC Nijmegen 1-4

W H

Fortuna Sittard 2-1

L A

Feyenoord 2-4

L H

FC Twente 0-2

L A

Sparta Rotterdam 0-2

FC Twente

1W 4D 0L

1.4 GF · 1 GA

D A

NAC Breda 2-2

W A

Heracles Almelo 2-0

D A

Feyenoord 1-1

D A

FC Utrecht 1-1

D A

FC Volendam 1-1

3W 2D 0L

1.8 GF · 0.2 GA

W H

SC Heerenveen 5-0

D H

Excelsior 0-0

D H

PEC Zwolle 1-1

W H

Go Ahead Eagles 2-0

W H

AZ 1-0

1W 4D 0L

1.4 GF · 1 GA

D A

NAC Breda 2-2

W A

Heracles Almelo 2-0

D A

Feyenoord 1-1

D A

FC Utrecht 1-1

D A

FC Volendam 1-1

2W 3D 0L

2 GF · 0.6 GA

W H

SC Heerenveen 5-0

D A

NAC Breda 2-2

D H

Excelsior 0-0

W A

Heracles Almelo 2-0

D H

PEC Zwolle 1-1

Sidelined Players

Heracles Almelo 2 out

Jeff Reine-Adélaïde

injury

Sem Scheperman

injury

FC Twente 4 out

Mees Hilgers

injury

Sam Lammers

injury

Mees Hilgers

injury

Issam El Maach

injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Heracles Almelo

1

10%

Draws

4

40%

FC Twente

5

50%

Avg Goals

2.7

BTTS

60%

League Signals

Predictability

55%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+8%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

3.0

HIGH

Draw Rate

24%

BTTS

55%

Over 2.5

58%

Final Words

Heracles Almelo have struggled recently, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches. The head-to-head favors FC Twente in recent meetings.