FSV Mainz 05 vs VfL Wolfsburg - Bundesliga Prediction

Value Assessment

Home Win

2.80

43% pred

+7.4%

VALUE

Draw

3.43

28% pred

-1.4%

Away Win

2.73

29% pred

-7.6%

BTTS Yes 1.69 52%

BTTS No 2.12 43%

Best Opportunity

VALUE

Home Win @ 2.80

+7.4% edge 43% probability

Expected value: +0.21 units per bet

Confidence

Medium

71%

Key Insights

Relegation Zone

FSV Mainz 05 in position 16 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop

High impact

Must Win

FSV Mainz 05 in position 16 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation

High impact

High Scoring

VfL Wolfsburg involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5

Medium impact

Bookmaker Split

Bookmakers disagree on home win: 2.17 (HKJC) to 4.50 (Betfair) - 23.9% probability spread indicates market uncertainty

High impact

Bookmaker Split

Bookmakers disagree on away win: 1.72 (Betsson) to 3.21 (Pinnacle) - 27.0% probability spread indicates market uncertainty

High impact

Match Normality

50%

Significant concerns

Match Info

Kickoff

Sat, Jan 24 2026 · 14:30

Venue

Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Competition

Bundesliga · 19

Coaches

Urs Fischer

FSV Mainz 05

Daniel Bauer

VfL Wolfsburg

Referee

Daniel Siebert

Related Coverage

League season story FSV Mainz 05 form report VfL Wolfsburg form report

Recent Form

FSV Mainz 05

4W 1D 0L

1.8 GF · 0.4 GA

W H

FC Augsburg 2-0

W H

VfL Wolfsburg 3-1

W H

Heidenheim 2-1

D H

St. Pauli 0-0

W H

Samsunspor 2-0

4W 1D 0L

1.8 GF · 0.4 GA

W H

FC Augsburg 2-0

W H

VfL Wolfsburg 3-1

W H

Heidenheim 2-1

D H

St. Pauli 0-0

W H

Samsunspor 2-0

1W 3D 1L

1.6 GF · 1.6 GA

W A

RB Leipzig 2-1

L A

FC Köln 1-2

D A

FC Union Berlin 2-2

D A

FC Bayern München 2-2

D A

Lech Poznań 1-1

4W 0D 1L

2 GF · 1 GA

W H

FC Augsburg 2-0

W A

RB Leipzig 2-1

W H

VfL Wolfsburg 3-1

L A

FC Köln 1-2

W H

Heidenheim 2-1

VfL Wolfsburg

1W 1D 3L

1.2 GF · 2.8 GA

L A

FC Köln 0-1

L A

FSV Mainz 05 1-3

L A

FC Bayern München 1-8

W A

Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1

D A

Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1

2W 1D 2L

2 GF · 1.8 GA

L H

Borussia Dortmund 1-2

D H

Heidenheim 1-1

W H

St. Pauli 2-1

L H

SC Freiburg 3-4

W H

FC Union Berlin 3-1

1W 1D 3L

1.2 GF · 2.8 GA

L A

FC Köln 0-1

L A

FSV Mainz 05 1-3

L A

FC Bayern München 1-8

W A

Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1

D A

Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1

1W 1D 3L

1 GF · 1.6 GA

L H

Borussia Dortmund 1-2

L A

FC Köln 0-1

L A

FSV Mainz 05 1-3

D H

Heidenheim 1-1

W H

St. Pauli 2-1

Sidelined Players

FSV Mainz 05 5 out

Robin Zentner

injury

Sota Kawasaki

injury

William Bøving

injury

Benedict Hollerbach

injury

Armindo Sieb

injury

VfL Wolfsburg 13 out

Bence Dárdai

injury

Konstantinos Koulierakis

injury

Jakub Kamiński

injury

Joakim Maehle

injury

Rogério

injury

+8 more

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

FSV Mainz 05

3

30%

Draws

3

30%

VfL Wolfsburg

4

40%

Avg Goals

3.7

BTTS

60%

League Signals

Predictability

55%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+9%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

3.1

HIGH

Draw Rate

25%

BTTS

60%

Over 2.5

60%

Final Words

FSV Mainz 05 enter this match in excellent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches. VfL Wolfsburg have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5.