Value Assessment
Home Win
3.50
34% pred
+5.7%
VALUE
Draw
3.31
25% pred
-4.9%
Away Win
2.12
40% pred
-6.8%
BTTS Yes
1.73
49%
BTTS No
2.05
46%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Home Win
@
3.50
+5.7% edge
34% probability
Expected value: +0.20 units per bet
Confidence
Medium
64%
Key Insights
Title Race
AC Milan in position 2, 3 points behind leader - competing for title
High impactRelegation Zone
Fiorentina in position 20 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop
High impactEuropean Race
AC Milan in position 2 - competing for European qualification
Medium impactRotation Risk
Fiorentina has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactMust Win
Fiorentina in position 20 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation
High impactStreak Watch
AC Milan unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) - solid defensive form
Medium impactMatch Normality
75%
Minor irregularities detected
Match Info
Kickoff
Sun, Jan 11 2026
·
14:00
Venue
Stadio Artemio Franchi
(Firenze)
Competition
Serie A
·
20
Coaches
Paolo Vanoli
Fiorentina
Massimiliano Allegri
AC Milan
Referee
Davide Massa
Related Coverage
Recent Form
Fiorentina
1W 2D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.6 GA
D
H
Torino
2-2
Torino
2-2
L
H
Como
1-3
Como
1-3
L
H
Cagliari
1-2
Cagliari
1-2
D
H
AC Milan
1-1
AC Milan
1-1
W
H
Cremonese
1-0
Cremonese
1-0
1W 2D 2L
1.2 GF · 1.6 GA
D
H
Torino
2-2
Torino
2-2
L
H
Como
1-3
Como
1-3
L
H
Cagliari
1-2
Cagliari
1-2
D
H
AC Milan
1-1
AC Milan
1-1
W
H
Cremonese
1-0
Cremonese
1-0
1W 1D 3L
1 GF · 1.4 GA
L
A
Napoli
1-2
Napoli
1-2
W
A
Bologna
2-1
Bologna
2-1
D
A
Lazio
2-2
Lazio
2-2
L
A
Parma
0-1
Parma
0-1
L
A
Lausanne Sport
0-1
Lausanne Sport
0-1
1W 1D 3L
1.4 GF · 2 GA
D
H
Torino
2-2
Torino
2-2
L
A
Napoli
1-2
Napoli
1-2
L
H
Como
1-3
Como
1-3
L
H
Cagliari
1-2
Cagliari
1-2
W
A
Bologna
2-1
Bologna
2-1
AC Milan
3W 2D 0L
1.8 GF · 0.6 GA
W
A
Bologna
3-0
Bologna
3-0
D
A
Roma
1-1
Roma
1-1
W
A
Como
3-1
Como
3-1
D
A
Fiorentina
1-1
Fiorentina
1-1
W
A
Cagliari
1-0
Cagliari
1-0
3W 2D 0L
1.6 GF · 0.6 GA
W
H
Lecce
1-0
Lecce
1-0
D
H
Genoa
1-1
Genoa
1-1
W
H
Hellas Verona
3-0
Hellas Verona
3-0
D
H
Sassuolo
2-2
Sassuolo
2-2
W
H
Lazio
1-0
Lazio
1-0
3W 2D 0L
1.8 GF · 0.6 GA
W
A
Bologna
3-0
Bologna
3-0
D
A
Roma
1-1
Roma
1-1
W
A
Como
3-1
Como
3-1
D
A
Fiorentina
1-1
Fiorentina
1-1
W
A
Cagliari
1-0
Cagliari
1-0
3W 2D 0L
1.8 GF · 0.6 GA
W
A
Bologna
3-0
Bologna
3-0
D
A
Roma
1-1
Roma
1-1
W
H
Lecce
1-0
Lecce
1-0
W
A
Como
3-1
Como
3-1
D
A
Fiorentina
1-1
Fiorentina
1-1
Sidelined Players
Fiorentina
1 out
Albert Gudmundsson
injury
AC Milan
3 out
Santiago Gimenez
injury
Christian Pulisic
injury
Malick Thiaw
injury
Head-to-Head (Last 10)
Fiorentina
3
30%
Draws
2
20%
AC Milan
5
50%
Avg Goals
3.0
BTTS
80%
League Signals
Predictability
54%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+5%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.7
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
27%
BTTS
54%
Over 2.5
51%
Final Words
Fiorentina have struggled recently, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches.