Value Assessment
Home Win
1.83
43% pred
-11.2%
Draw
3.71
25% pred
-1.6%
Away Win
4.06
31% pred
+6.6%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.64
40%
BTTS No
2.18
50%
MARGINAL
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Away Win
@
4.06
+6.6% edge
31% probability
Expected value: +0.27 units per bet
Confidence
Low
57%
Key Insights
Title Race
FC Midtjylland in position 3, 2 points behind leader - competing for title
High impactEuropean Race
FC Midtjylland in position 3 - competing for European qualification
Medium impactRotation Risk
Dinamo Zagreb has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion
Medium impactStreak Watch
FC Midtjylland unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) - solid defensive form
Medium impactHome Fortress
FC Midtjylland unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (7 wins, 1 draws) - strong home advantage
Medium impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 39.6% BTTS vs 61.0% market consensus - lower probability, 21.4% gap
Medium impactMatch Normality
80%
Minor irregularities detected
Match Info
Kickoff
Thu, Jan 29 2026
·
20:00
Venue
MCH Arena
(Herning)
Competition
Europa League
·
League Stage
, 8
Coaches
Mike Tullberg
FC Midtjylland
Mario Kovačević
Dinamo Zagreb
Referee
Elçin Məsiyev
Recent Form
FC Midtjylland
4W 1D 0L
2.6 GF · 0.4 GA
W
H
Dinamo Zagreb
2-0
Dinamo Zagreb
2-0
W
H
Genk
1-0
Genk
1-0
W
H
Nordsjælland
6-0
Nordsjælland
6-0
W
H
Celtic
3-1
Celtic
3-1
D
H
AGF
1-1
AGF
1-1
4W 1D 0L
2.6 GF · 0.4 GA
W
H
Dinamo Zagreb
2-0
Dinamo Zagreb
2-0
W
H
Genk
1-0
Genk
1-0
W
H
Nordsjælland
6-0
Nordsjælland
6-0
W
H
Celtic
3-1
Celtic
3-1
D
H
AGF
1-1
AGF
1-1
1W 2D 2L
2 GF · 2 GA
D
A
Brann
3-3
Brann
3-3
D
A
Viborg FF
3-3
Viborg FF
3-3
L
A
Roma
1-2
Roma
1-2
L
A
Sønderjyske Fodbold
1-2
Sønderjyske Fodbold
1-2
W
A
Randers FC
2-0
Randers FC
2-0
3W 2D 0L
3 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Dinamo Zagreb
2-0
Dinamo Zagreb
2-0
D
A
Brann
3-3
Brann
3-3
W
H
Genk
1-0
Genk
1-0
D
A
Viborg FF
3-3
Viborg FF
3-3
W
H
Nordsjælland
6-0
Nordsjælland
6-0
Dinamo Zagreb
3W 0D 2L
2 GF · 1.6 GA
L
A
FC Midtjylland
0-2
FC Midtjylland
0-2
W
A
Osijek
3-0
Osijek
3-0
W
A
Slaven Koprivnica
5-2
Slaven Koprivnica
5-2
W
A
Gorica
2-0
Gorica
2-0
L
A
LOSC Lille
0-4
LOSC Lille
0-4
3W 1D 1L
2.2 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Vukovar
3-1
Vukovar
3-1
W
H
FCSB
4-1
FCSB
4-1
W
H
Lokomotiva Zagreb
2-0
Lokomotiva Zagreb
2-0
L
H
Real Betis
1-3
Real Betis
1-3
D
H
Hajduk Split
1-1
Hajduk Split
1-1
3W 0D 2L
2 GF · 1.6 GA
L
A
FC Midtjylland
0-2
FC Midtjylland
0-2
W
A
Osijek
3-0
Osijek
3-0
W
A
Slaven Koprivnica
5-2
Slaven Koprivnica
5-2
W
A
Gorica
2-0
Gorica
2-0
L
A
LOSC Lille
0-4
LOSC Lille
0-4
4W 0D 1L
2.4 GF · 0.8 GA
W
H
Vukovar
3-1
Vukovar
3-1
L
A
FC Midtjylland
0-2
FC Midtjylland
0-2
W
A
Osijek
3-0
Osijek
3-0
W
H
FCSB
4-1
FCSB
4-1
W
H
Lokomotiva Zagreb
2-0
Lokomotiva Zagreb
2-0
Sidelined Players
FC Midtjylland
8 out
Adam Gabriel
injury
Mikel Gogorza
injury
Paulinho
injury
Mark Nnamdi Ugboh
suspended
Philip Billing
suspended
+3 more
Dinamo Zagreb
3 out
Raúl Torrente
injury
Bruno Petkovic
injury
Ismaël Bennacer
injury
Head-to-Head (Last 1)
FC Midtjylland
1
100%
Draws
0
0%
Dinamo Zagreb
0
0%
Avg Goals
2.0
BTTS
0%
League Signals
Predictability
56%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+12%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.9
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
21%
BTTS
53%
Over 2.5
56%
Final Words
Dinamo Zagreb arrive in strong form with 4 wins from 5 games.