FC Barcelona vs FC København - Champions League Prediction

Value Assessment

Home Win

1.11

59% pred

-31.0%

Draw

10.29

22% pred

+12.4%

VALUE

Away Win

17.68

19% pred

+13.2%

VALUE

BTTS Yes 1.74 43%

BTTS No 2.05 47%

Key Insights

Rotation Risk

FC Barcelona has 5 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

High impact

Must Win

FC København in position 26 with poor recent form (20% points) - must-win situation

High impact

Home Fortress

FC Barcelona unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (8 wins, 0 draws) - strong home advantage

Medium impact

Defensive Fortress

FC Barcelona has excellent defensive record: 5 clean sheets in last 8 matches (62%) - favors Under/BTTS No

Medium impact

Top Scorer

FC Barcelona has Fermín López ranked #6 in league scoring (5 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 59.1% home win vs 90.1% market consensus - lower probability, 31.0% gap

High impact

Match Normality

65%

Significant concerns

Match Info

Kickoff

Wed, Jan 28 2026 · 20:00

Venue

Camp Nou (Barcelona)

Competition

Champions League · League Stage , 8

Coaches

Hans-Dieter Flick

FC Barcelona

Jacob Neestrup Hansen

FC København

Referee

Benoît Bastien

Recent Form

FC Barcelona

5W 0D 0L

2.8 GF · 0.6 GA

W H

FC København 4-1

W H

Real Oviedo 3-0

W H Osasuna

Osasuna 2-0

W H

Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1

W H

Atlético Madrid 3-1

5W 0D 0L

2.8 GF · 0.6 GA

W H

FC København 4-1

W H

Real Oviedo 3-0

W H Osasuna

Osasuna 2-0

W H

Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1

W H

Atlético Madrid 3-1

4W 0D 1L

2.4 GF · 1.2 GA

W A

Albacete 2-1

W A Elche

Elche 3-1

W A

Slavia Praha 4-2

L A

Real Sociedad 1-2

W A

Racing Santander 2-0

5W 0D 0L

3.2 GF · 1 GA

W A

Albacete 2-1

W A Elche

Elche 3-1

W H

FC København 4-1

W H

Real Oviedo 3-0

W A

Slavia Praha 4-2

FC København

1W 0D 4L

0.8 GF · 2.8 GA

L A

FC Barcelona 1-4

W A

Villarreal 3-2

L A AGF

AGF 0-2

L A

Vejle Boldklub 0-2

L A

Tottenham Hotspur 0-4

3W 1D 1L

1.6 GF · 1.4 GA

D H Napoli

Napoli 1-1

L H

Sønderjyske Fodbold 0-2

W H Kairat

Kairat 3-2

W H

Brøndby IF 1-0

W H

Fredericia 3-2

1W 0D 4L

0.8 GF · 2.8 GA

L A

FC Barcelona 1-4

W A

Villarreal 3-2

L A AGF

AGF 0-2

L A

Vejle Boldklub 0-2

L A

Tottenham Hotspur 0-4

1W 1D 3L

1 GF · 2.2 GA

L A

FC Barcelona 1-4

D H Napoli

Napoli 1-1

W A

Villarreal 3-2

L H

Sønderjyske Fodbold 0-2

L A AGF

AGF 0-2

Sidelined Players

FC Barcelona 4 out

Raphinha

injury

Gavi

injury

Andreas Christensen

injury

Pedri

injury

FC København 5 out

Magnus Mattsson

injury

Rasmus Falk

suspended

Oliver Højer

injury

Rodrigo Huescas

injury

Mohamed Elyounoussi

injury

Head-to-Head (Last 3)

FC Barcelona

2

67%

Draws

1

33%

FC København

0

0%

Avg Goals

3.0

BTTS

67%

League Signals

Predictability

57%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+9%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

3.0

HIGH

Draw Rate

20%

BTTS

51%

Over 2.5

57%

Final Words

FC Barcelona enter this match in excellent form, winning 5 of their last 5 matches. FC København have been inconsistent, managing just 1 win in their last 5. Historically, FC Barcelona have dominated this fixture.