Brighton & Hove Albion vs AFC Bournemouth - Premier League Prediction

Value Assessment

Home Win

1.95

59% pred

+7.5%

VALUE

Draw

3.82

20% pred

-6.3%

Away Win

3.61

21% pred

-6.3%

BTTS Yes 1.46 42%

BTTS No 2.62 50% VALUE

Best Opportunity

VALUE

Home Win @ 1.95

+7.5% edge 59% probability

Expected value: +0.15 units per bet

Confidence

Low

59%

Key Insights

Away Struggles

AFC Bournemouth winless in last 8 away matches (4 draws, 4 losses) - poor away record

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 42.1% BTTS vs 68.5% market consensus - lower probability, 26.4% gap

High impact

Match Normality

90%

Normal match expected

Match Info

Kickoff

Mon, Jan 19 2026 · 20:00

Venue

The American Express Community Stadium (Falmer)

Competition

Premier League · 22

Coaches

Fabian Hürzeler

Brighton & Hove Albion

Andoni Iraola

AFC Bournemouth

Referee

Paul Tierney

Related Coverage

League season story Brighton & Hove Albion form report AFC Bournemouth form report

Recent Form

Brighton & Hove Albion

1W 3D 1L

0.8 GF · 0.6 GA

L H

Crystal Palace 0-1

D H Everton

Everton 1-1

D H

AFC Bournemouth 1-1

W H Burnley

Burnley 2-0

D H

Sunderland 0-0

1W 3D 1L

0.8 GF · 0.6 GA

L H

Crystal Palace 0-1

D H Everton

Everton 1-1

D H

AFC Bournemouth 1-1

W H Burnley

Burnley 2-0

D H

Sunderland 0-0

1W 2D 2L

1.4 GF · 1.6 GA

L A Fulham

Fulham 1-2

W A

Manchester United 2-1

D A

Manchester City 1-1

D A

West Ham United 2-2

L A Arsenal

Arsenal 1-2

1W 2D 2L

1 GF · 1.2 GA

L H

Crystal Palace 0-1

D H Everton

Everton 1-1

L A Fulham

Fulham 1-2

D H

AFC Bournemouth 1-1

W A

Manchester United 2-1

AFC Bournemouth

2W 3D 0L

2 GF · 1.4 GA

W A Everton

Everton 2-1

W A

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0

D A

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1

D A

Newcastle United 3-3

D A Chelsea

Chelsea 2-2

2W 2D 1L

2 GF · 1.8 GA

D H

Aston Villa 1-1

W H

Liverpool 3-2

W H

Tottenham Hotspur 3-2

L H Arsenal

Arsenal 2-3

D H Burnley

Burnley 1-1

2W 3D 0L

2 GF · 1.4 GA

W A Everton

Everton 2-1

W A

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0

D A

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1

D A

Newcastle United 3-3

D A Chelsea

Chelsea 2-2

3W 2D 0L

1.8 GF · 1 GA

W A Everton

Everton 2-1

D H

Aston Villa 1-1

W A

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0

W H

Liverpool 3-2

D A

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1

Sidelined Players

Brighton & Hove Albion 5 out

Stefanos Tzimas

injury

Jan Paul van Hecke

injury

Yasin Ayari

injury

Jason Steele

injury

Adam Webster

injury

AFC Bournemouth 9 out

Veljko Milosavljevic

injury

Luis Sinisterra

injury

James Hill

injury

Tyler Adams

injury

Ben Gannon-Doak

injury

+4 more

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

Brighton & Hove Albion

6

60%

Draws

1

10%

AFC Bournemouth

3

30%

Avg Goals

2.7

BTTS

60%

League Signals

Predictability

46%

LOW

Home Bias

+5%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

2.9

MEDIUM

Draw Rate

23%

BTTS

54%

Over 2.5

56%

Final Words

Brighton & Hove Albion have struggled recently, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches.