Value Assessment
Home Win
1.69
31% pred
-28.2%
Draw
3.92
26% pred
+0.4%
Away Win
4.75
43% pred
+22.1%
VALUE
BTTS Yes
1.75
50%
BTTS No
2.02
45%
Best Opportunity
VALUE
Away Win
@
4.75
+22.1% edge
43% probability
Expected value: +1.05 units per bet
Confidence
Medium
62%
Key Insights
Must Win
Celtic in position 24 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation
High impactAway Specialist
Celtic exceptional away form: 5 wins in last 8 away matches (62% win rate)
Medium impactHigh Scoring
Celtic involved in high-scoring games: 8 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5
Medium impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 31.0% home win vs 59.2% market consensus - lower probability, 28.2% gap
High impactMarket Disagreement
Model sees 43.1% away win vs 21.1% market consensus - higher probability, 22.1% gap
Medium impactMatch Normality
75%
Minor irregularities detected
Match Info
Kickoff
Thu, Jan 22 2026
·
17:45
Venue
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
(Bologna)
Competition
Europa League
·
League Stage
, 7
Coaches
Andrade Davis Nicolas
Bologna
Martin O'Neill
Celtic
Referee
Vasilis Fotias
Recent Form
Bologna
0W 2D 3L
0.8 GF · 2 GA
L
H
AC Milan
0-3
AC Milan
0-3
D
H
Celtic
2-2
Celtic
2-2
L
H
Fiorentina
1-2
Fiorentina
1-2
L
H
Atalanta
0-2
Atalanta
0-2
D
H
Sassuolo
1-1
Sassuolo
1-1
0W 2D 3L
0.8 GF · 2 GA
L
H
AC Milan
0-3
AC Milan
0-3
D
H
Celtic
2-2
Celtic
2-2
L
H
Fiorentina
1-2
Fiorentina
1-2
L
H
Atalanta
0-2
Atalanta
0-2
D
H
Sassuolo
1-1
Sassuolo
1-1
2W 1D 2L
2 GF · 1.8 GA
W
A
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3-0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3-0
L
A
Genoa
2-3
Genoa
2-3
W
A
Hellas Verona
3-2
Hellas Verona
3-2
D
A
Como
1-1
Como
1-1
L
A
Inter
1-3
Inter
1-3
1W 1D 3L
1.6 GF · 2 GA
L
H
AC Milan
0-3
AC Milan
0-3
W
A
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3-0
Maccabi Tel Aviv
3-0
L
A
Genoa
2-3
Genoa
2-3
D
H
Celtic
2-2
Celtic
2-2
L
H
Fiorentina
1-2
Fiorentina
1-2
Celtic
2W 2D 1L
1.8 GF · 1.6 GA
D
A
Hearts
2-2
Hearts
2-2
D
A
Bologna
2-2
Bologna
2-2
W
A
Falkirk
1-0
Falkirk
1-0
L
A
Motherwell
0-2
Motherwell
0-2
W
A
Livingston
4-2
Livingston
4-2
4W 0D 1L
2.8 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Falkirk
2-0
Falkirk
2-0
W
H
FC Utrecht
4-2
FC Utrecht
4-2
W
H
Dundee United
4-0
Dundee United
4-0
L
H
Rangers
1-3
Rangers
1-3
W
H
Aberdeen
3-1
Aberdeen
3-1
2W 2D 1L
1.8 GF · 1.6 GA
D
A
Hearts
2-2
Hearts
2-2
D
A
Bologna
2-2
Bologna
2-2
W
A
Falkirk
1-0
Falkirk
1-0
L
A
Motherwell
0-2
Motherwell
0-2
W
A
Livingston
4-2
Livingston
4-2
3W 2D 0L
2.2 GF · 1.2 GA
W
H
Falkirk
2-0
Falkirk
2-0
W
H
FC Utrecht
4-2
FC Utrecht
4-2
D
A
Hearts
2-2
Hearts
2-2
D
A
Bologna
2-2
Bologna
2-2
W
A
Falkirk
1-0
Falkirk
1-0
Sidelined Players
Bologna
2 out
Jhon Lucumí
injury
Lorenzo De Silvestri
injury
Celtic
1 out
Luis Palma
suspension
Head-to-Head (Last 1)
Bologna
0
0%
Draws
1
100%
Celtic
0
0%
Avg Goals
4.0
BTTS
100%
League Signals
Predictability
56%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+12%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.9
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
21%
BTTS
53%
Over 2.5
56%
Final Words
Bologna have struggled recently, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches.