Bodø / Glimt vs Manchester City - Champions League Prediction

Value Assessment

Home Win

6.49

42% pred

+26.8%

VALUE

Draw

5.59

24% pred

+6.1%

VALUE

Away Win

1.39

34% pred

-38.2%

BTTS Yes 1.44 58%

BTTS No 2.69 36%

Best Opportunity

VALUE

Home Win @ 6.49

+26.8% edge 42% probability

Expected value: +1.74 units per bet

Confidence

Medium

69%

Key Insights

European Race

Manchester City in position 4 - competing for European qualification

Medium impact

Rotation Risk

Manchester City has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Medium impact

Must Win

Bodø / Glimt in position 26 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation

High impact

High Scoring

Bodø / Glimt involved in high-scoring games: 9 of last 10 matches had 3+ goals - favors Over 2.5

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 42.2% home win vs 15.4% market consensus - higher probability, 26.8% gap

High impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 33.7% away win vs 71.9% market consensus - lower probability, 38.2% gap

High impact

Match Normality

65%

Significant concerns

Match Info

Kickoff

Tue, Jan 20 2026 · 17:45

Venue

Aspmyra Stadion (Bodø)

Competition

Champions League · League Stage , 7

Coaches

Kjetil Knutsen

Bodø / Glimt

Pep Guardiola

Manchester City

Referee

Sven Jablonski

Recent Form

Bodø / Glimt

3W 0D 2L

3 GF · 1 GA

W H

Manchester City 3-1

W H

Fredrikstad 5-0

L H

Juventus 2-3

W H Bryne

Bryne 5-0

L H Monaco

Monaco 0-1

3W 0D 2L

3 GF · 1 GA

W H

Manchester City 3-1

W H

Fredrikstad 5-0

L H

Juventus 2-3

W H Bryne

Bryne 5-0

L H Monaco

Monaco 0-1

3W 1D 1L

1.8 GF · 1.6 GA

W A

Atlético Madrid 2-1

D A

Borussia Dortmund 2-2

W A KFUM

KFUM 2-1

L A

Vålerenga 1-3

W A Brann

Brann 2-1

3W 1D 1L

2.8 GF · 1.4 GA

W A

Atlético Madrid 2-1

W H

Manchester City 3-1

D A

Borussia Dortmund 2-2

W H

Fredrikstad 5-0

L H

Juventus 2-3

Manchester City

1W 2D 2L

1 GF · 1.4 GA

D A

Tottenham Hotspur 2-2

L A

Bodø / Glimt 1-3

L A

Manchester United 0-2

W A

Newcastle United 2-0

D A

Sunderland 0-0

3W 2D 0L

3.2 GF · 0.6 GA

W H

Galatasaray 2-0

W H

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0

W H

Exeter City 10-1

D H

Brighton & Hove Albion 1-1

D H Chelsea

Chelsea 1-1

1W 2D 2L

1 GF · 1.4 GA

D A

Tottenham Hotspur 2-2

L A

Bodø / Glimt 1-3

L A

Manchester United 0-2

W A

Newcastle United 2-0

D A

Sunderland 0-0

2W 1D 2L

1.4 GF · 1.4 GA

D A

Tottenham Hotspur 2-2

W H

Galatasaray 2-0

W H

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0

L A

Bodø / Glimt 1-3

L A

Manchester United 0-2

Sidelined Players

Bodø / Glimt 4 out

Odin Luras Bjortuft

injury

Daniel Bassi

injury

Ola Brynhildsen

injury

Ulrik Saltnes

injury

Manchester City 5 out

Rúben Dias

injury

Mateo Kovacic

injury

Josko Gvardiol

injury

John Stones

injury

Savinho

injury

Head-to-Head (Last 1)

Bodø / Glimt

1

100%

Draws

0

0%

Manchester City

0

0%

Avg Goals

4.0

BTTS

100%

League Signals

Predictability

57%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+9%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

3.0

HIGH

Draw Rate

20%

BTTS

51%

Over 2.5

57%