Benfica vs Real Madrid - Champions League Prediction

Value Assessment

Home Win

4.19

40% pred

+15.8%

VALUE

Draw

4.12

25% pred

+0.2%

Away Win

1.73

36% pred

-22.0%

BTTS Yes 1.49 48%

BTTS No 2.55 40%

Key Insights

Title Race

Real Madrid in position 3, 6 points behind leader - competing for title

Medium impact

European Race

Real Madrid in position 3 - competing for European qualification

Medium impact

Rotation Risk

Benfica has 4 fixtures in 14-day window - rotation risk due to congestion

Medium impact

Away Specialist

Real Madrid exceptional away form: 5 wins in last 8 away matches (62% win rate)

Medium impact

Defensive Fortress

Benfica has excellent defensive record: 5 clean sheets in last 8 matches (62%) - favors Under/BTTS No

Medium impact

Top Scorer

Real Madrid has Kylian Mbappé ranked #1 in league scoring (11 goals) - strong attacking threat

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 35.8% away win vs 57.8% market consensus - lower probability, 22.0% gap

Medium impact

Match Normality

70%

Minor irregularities detected

Match Info

Kickoff

Wed, Jan 28 2026 · 20:00

Venue

Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (Lisboa)

Competition

Champions League · League Stage , 8

Coaches

José Mourinho

Benfica

Arbeloa

Real Madrid

Referee

Davide Massa

Recent Form

Benfica

5W 0D 0L

2.8 GF · 0.6 GA

W H

Real Madrid 4-2

W H

Estrela Amadora 4-0

W H Estoril

Estoril 3-1

W H

Famalicão 1-0

W H Napoli

Napoli 2-0

5W 0D 0L

2.8 GF · 0.6 GA

W H

Real Madrid 4-2

W H

Estrela Amadora 4-0

W H Estoril

Estoril 3-1

W H

Famalicão 1-0

W H Napoli

Napoli 2-0

2W 2D 1L

1.6 GF · 0.8 GA

D A Tondela

Tondela 0-0

L A

Juventus 0-2

W A Rio Ave

Rio Ave 2-0

D A

Sporting Braga 2-2

W A

Moreirense 4-0

3W 1D 1L

2 GF · 0.8 GA

D A Tondela

Tondela 0-0

W H

Real Madrid 4-2

W H

Estrela Amadora 4-0

L A

Juventus 0-2

W A Rio Ave

Rio Ave 2-0

Real Madrid

3W 0D 2L

2.2 GF · 2 GA

L A Benfica

Benfica 2-4

W A

Villarreal 2-0

L A

Albacete 2-3

W A

Talavera CF 3-2

W A

Deportivo Alavés 2-1

5W 0D 0L

3.4 GF · 0.6 GA

W H

Rayo Vallecano 2-1

W H Monaco

Monaco 6-1

W H Levante

Levante 2-0

W H

Real Betis 5-1

W H Sevilla

Sevilla 2-0

3W 0D 2L

2.2 GF · 2 GA

L A Benfica

Benfica 2-4

W A

Villarreal 2-0

L A

Albacete 2-3

W A

Talavera CF 3-2

W A

Deportivo Alavés 2-1

4W 0D 1L

2.8 GF · 1.2 GA

W H

Rayo Vallecano 2-1

L A Benfica

Benfica 2-4

W A

Villarreal 2-0

W H Monaco

Monaco 6-1

W H Levante

Levante 2-0

Sidelined Players

Benfica 5 out

Gianluca Prestianni

suspended

João Veloso

injury

Dodi Lukébakio

injury

Henrique Araújo

injury

Richard Ríos

injury

Real Madrid 6 out

Rodrygo

suspended

Raúl Asencio

suspended

Éder Militão

injury

Ferland Mendy

injury

Antonio Rüdiger

injury

+1 more

Head-to-Head (Last 1)

Benfica

1

100%

Draws

0

0%

Real Madrid

0

0%

Avg Goals

6.0

BTTS

100%

League Signals

Predictability

57%

MEDIUM

Home Bias

+9%

MODERATE

Avg Goals

3.0

HIGH

Draw Rate

20%

BTTS

51%

Over 2.5

57%

Final Words

Real Madrid arrive in strong form with 4 wins from 5 games.