Just Football Predictions

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Villarreal

Full Time
Champions League BayArena
Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

3
-
0
Villarreal

Villarreal

Value Assessment Key Insights Match Context Recent Form Sidelined Head-to-Head League Signals Final Words

Value Assessment

Home Win
1.65
40% pred
-20.5%
Draw
4.12
25% pred
+0.9%
Away Win
4.79
35% pred
+13.8%
VALUE
BTTS Yes 1.59 49%
BTTS No 2.30 39%

Key Insights

Relegation Zone

Villarreal

Villarreal in position 35 (in relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop

High impact

Leaky Defense

Villarreal

Villarreal has poor defensive record: only 0 clean sheets in last 8 matches (0%) - favors BTTS Yes/opponent goals

Medium impact

Market Disagreement

Model sees 40.1% home win vs 60.6% market consensus - lower probability, 20.5% gap

Medium impact

Match Normality

75%

Minor irregularities detected

Match Info

Kickoff
Wed, Jan 28 2026 · 20:00
Venue
BayArena (Leverkusen)
Competition
Champions League · League Stage , 8
Coaches
Kasper Hjulmand
Kasper Hjulmand
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Marcelino
Marcelino
Villarreal
Referee
Espen Eskås Espen Eskås

Recent Form

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bayer 04 Leverkusen
3W 1D 1L
1.8 GF · 1.2 GA
W H Villarreal Villarreal 3-0
W H Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-0
L H VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 1-4
W H FC Köln FC Köln 2-0
D H Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-2
3W 1D 1L
1.8 GF · 1.2 GA
W H Villarreal Villarreal 3-0
W H Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-0
L H VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 1-4
W H FC Köln FC Köln 2-0
D H Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-2
2W 0D 3L
1.2 GF · 1.4 GA
W A Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1
L A Olympiacos F.C. Olympiacos F.C. 0-2
L A TSG Hoffenheim TSG Hoffenheim 0-1
W A RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1
L A FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 0-2
3W 0D 2L
1.4 GF · 0.8 GA
W A Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1
W H Villarreal Villarreal 3-0
W H Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-0
L A Olympiacos F.C. Olympiacos F.C. 0-2
L A TSG Hoffenheim TSG Hoffenheim 0-1
Villarreal Villarreal
1W 1D 3L
1.2 GF · 2 GA
D A Osasuna Osasuna 2-2
L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-3
L A Real Betis Real Betis 0-2
W A Elche Elche 3-1
L A Racing Santander Racing Santander 1-2
1W 0D 4L
1.2 GF · 2 GA
L H Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-2
L H Ajax Ajax 1-2
W H Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés 3-1
L H FC Barcelona FC Barcelona 0-2
L H FC København FC København 2-3
1W 1D 3L
1.2 GF · 2 GA
D A Osasuna Osasuna 2-2
L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-3
L A Real Betis Real Betis 0-2
W A Elche Elche 3-1
L A Racing Santander Racing Santander 1-2
0W 1D 4L
0.6 GF · 2.2 GA
D A Osasuna Osasuna 2-2
L A Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0-3
L H Real Madrid Real Madrid 0-2
L H Ajax Ajax 1-2
L A Real Betis Real Betis 0-2

Sidelined Players

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4 out
Nathan Tella
Nathan Tella
injury
Ibrahim Maza
Ibrahim Maza
injury
Mark Flekken
Mark Flekken
injury
Eliesse Ben Seghir
Eliesse Ben Seghir
injury
Villarreal Villarreal 6 out
Alfonso Pedraza
Alfonso Pedraza
injury
Raúl Albiol
Raúl Albiol
suspension
Pau Cabanes
Pau Cabanes
injury
Sergi Cardona
Sergi Cardona
injury
Logan Costa
Logan Costa
injury

+1 more

Head-to-Head (Last 5)

Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1
20%
Draws
1
20%
Villarreal
3
60%
Avg Goals
2.6
BTTS
40%

League Signals

Predictability
57%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+9%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
3.0
HIGH
Draw Rate
20%
BTTS
51%
Over 2.5
57%

Final Words

Villarreal have been inconsistent, managing just 0 win in their last 5. The head-to-head favors Villarreal in recent meetings.