AC Milan vs Lecce

Value Assessment

Home Win
1.28
72% pred
-6.1%
Draw
5.26
21% pred
+2.1%
Away Win
11.45
7% pred
-1.9%
BTTS Yes 2.47 35%
BTTS No 1.52 62%

Key Insights

Title Race

AC Milan

AC Milan in position 2, 5 points behind leader - competing for title

Medium impact

Relegation Zone

Lecce

Lecce in position 17 (near relegation zone) - fighting to avoid drop

Medium impact

Must Win

Lecce

Lecce in position 17 with poor recent form (0% points) - must-win situation

High impact

Streak Watch

AC Milan

AC Milan unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws) - solid defensive form

Medium impact

Streak Watch

Lecce

Lecce without a win in 5 games (1 draws, 4 losses) - struggling for results

High impact

Home Fortress

AC Milan

AC Milan unbeaten at home in last 8 matches (5 wins, 3 draws) - strong home advantage

Medium impact

Match Normality

80%

Minor irregularities detected

Match Info

Kickoff
Sun, Jan 18 2026 · 19:45
Venue
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (Milano)
Competition
Serie A · 21
Coaches
Massimiliano Allegri
Massimiliano Allegri
AC Milan
Eusebio Di Francesco
Eusebio Di Francesco
Lecce
Referee
Luca Zufferli Luca Zufferli

Recent Form

AC Milan AC Milan
3W 2D 0L
1.6 GF · 0.6 GA
W H Lecce Lecce 1-0
D H Genoa Genoa 1-1
W H Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 3-0
D H Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-2
W H Lazio Lazio 1-0
3W 2D 0L
1.6 GF · 0.6 GA
W H Lecce Lecce 1-0
D H Genoa Genoa 1-1
W H Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 3-0
D H Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-2
W H Lazio Lazio 1-0
3W 2D 0L
1.8 GF · 0.6 GA
W A Bologna Bologna 3-0
D A Roma Roma 1-1
W A Como Como 3-1
D A Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1
W A Cagliari Cagliari 1-0
3W 2D 0L
1.8 GF · 0.6 GA
W A Bologna Bologna 3-0
D A Roma Roma 1-1
W H Lecce Lecce 1-0
W A Como Como 3-1
D A Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1
Lecce Lecce
0W 1D 4L
0.2 GF · 1.2 GA
L A Torino Torino 0-1
L A AC Milan AC Milan 0-1
L A Inter Inter 0-1
D A Juventus Juventus 1-1
L A Cremonese Cremonese 0-2
1W 1D 3L
0.6 GF · 1.6 GA
W H Udinese Udinese 2-1
D H Lazio Lazio 0-0
L H Parma Parma 1-2
L H Roma Roma 0-2
L H Como Como 0-3
0W 1D 4L
0.2 GF · 1.2 GA
L A Torino Torino 0-1
L A AC Milan AC Milan 0-1
L A Inter Inter 0-1
D A Juventus Juventus 1-1
L A Cremonese Cremonese 0-2
1W 1D 3L
0.4 GF · 0.8 GA
W H Udinese Udinese 2-1
L A Torino Torino 0-1
D H Lazio Lazio 0-0
L A AC Milan AC Milan 0-1
L A Inter Inter 0-1

Sidelined Players

AC Milan AC Milan 3 out
Santiago Gimenez
Santiago Gimenez
injury
Christian Pulisic
Christian Pulisic
injury
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw
injury
Lecce Lecce 2 out
Tete Morente
Tete Morente
injury
Francesco Camarda
Francesco Camarda
injury

Head-to-Head (Last 10)

AC Milan
8
80%
Draws
2
20%
Lecce
0
0%
Avg Goals
3.2
BTTS
40%

League Signals

Predictability
54%
MEDIUM
Home Bias
+5%
MODERATE
Avg Goals
2.7
MEDIUM
Draw Rate
27%
BTTS
54%
Over 2.5
51%

Final Words

AC Milan vs Lecce kicks off at 19:45 [GMT] on Sunday, January 18, at the San Siro.
AC Milan AC Milan

<p>AC Milan welcome Lecce to San Siro with momentum on their side. The Rossoneri continue to set the pace in Serie A with a long unbeaten run and an imposing record in this fixture.</p> <p>Milan are unbeaten in their last 19 league matches, following a Rabiot-inspired 3-1 comeback win over Como on Thursday night. That victory kept them second, three points adrift of table-topping Inter, who have 46 points.</p> <p>It also helped Milan put an end to a string of successive draws [WWDDW], leaving them within touching distance of three consecutive victories.</p> <p>Historically, this matchup has strongly favoured Milan. They have avoided defeat in 24 of their last 25 Serie A meetings with Lecce, including four consecutive league wins.</p> <p>Even more telling is Milan’s dominance at home, where they have recorded three straight home victories by a margin of two or more goals against Lecce. In fact, Milan have scored at least twice in each of their last 12 home Serie A games versus Lecce, a statistic that highlights the attacking freedom they often enjoy in this fixture.</p> <p>Offensively, Milan remain reliable. They have found the net in each of their last 14 Serie A matches, combining control in possession with cutting edge in the final third.</p> <p>That attacking consistency, paired with growing confidence at San Siro, suggests Milan may dictate the tempo from the outset.</p> <p>A 3—5—2 with Nkunku and Rafael Leao in attack may be seen against Lecce.</p>

Lecce Lecce

<p>Lecce arrive under pressure, sitting 17th, with only three points above the bottom three as they head into Sunday’s clash. They have three consecutive defeats in Serie A [LDLLL], following the midweek 1-0 loss to Inter. In addition, they have managed just one win in their last seven league matches.</p> <p>While Lecce are capable of resilience on their day, recent form suggests they have struggled to cope with sustained pressure. The difficulty is more evident against top-tier opposition.</p> <p>Given Milan’s current rhythm, historical dominance, and strong home scoring record, the Rossoneri will be confident of extending both their unbeaten league run and their winning streak against Lecce. The context informs expectations for the fixture.</p> <p>For the visitors, discipline and defensive organisation will be essential if they are to avoid another difficult night in Milan. Maintaining shape under pressure will be part of the test for Lecce.</p> <p>A 4-3-3 formation with Stulic, Santiago Pierotti and Lameck Banda in attack is expected against AC Milan.</p>