Postmatch editorial

St. Pauli made the numbers look right

The final score was St. Pauli 2-1 Werder Bremen. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Hauke Wahl put the first mark on the match 55', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Werder Bremen led Total shots 4-13, even though the scoreboard went another way. Werder Bremen also shaded Corners 1-5.

Before kickoff, our model made St. Pauli the likeliest result at 41.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced St. Pauli at 37.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.9%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

St. Pauli

41.6%

Hit

Market result

St. Pauli

37.2%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

52.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Werder Bremen

St. Pauli

Werder Bremen

4

13

Corners

Werder Bremen

St. Pauli

Werder Bremen

1

5

Possession

Werder Bremen

St. Pauli

Werder Bremen

42%

58%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.