Manchester City
Aston Villa won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Aston Villa
Postmatch editorial
Aston Villa bent the night away from the script
The final score was Manchester City 1-2 Aston Villa. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Manchester City struck first through Antoine Semenyo 23', but Aston Villa recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Aston Villa led Shots on target 3-5. Manchester City also shaded Corners 9-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester City the likeliest result at 62.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester City at 71.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.0%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.48 against a fair line of 1.45. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester City
62.1%
Market result
Manchester City
71.4%
BTTS
Yes
56.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Aston VillaManchester City
Aston Villa
3
5
Corners
Manchester CityManchester City
Aston Villa
9
4
Total shots
Manchester CityManchester City
Aston Villa
16
12
Model edge
1
Marathonbet
Market odd
1.48
Fair odd
1.45
Edge
2.1%
Stake
1.38u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.