Postmatch editorial

Norway flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Italy 1-4 Norway. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Italy struck first through Pio Esposito 11', but Norway recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Italy led Corners 6-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Italy also shaded Possession 58%-42%.

Before kickoff, our model made Italy the likeliest result at 47.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Italy at 46.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.8%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 4.00 against a fair line of 3.73. That translated to an edge of 7.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Italy

47.0%

Miss

Market result

Italy

46.3%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

55.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Italy

Italy

Norway

6

2

Possession

Italy

Italy

Norway

58%

42%

Shots on target

Norway

Italy

Norway

4

5

Model edge

2

Betfair

Market odd

4.00

Fair odd

3.73

Edge

7.2%

Stake

0.53u

That ticket matched the final outcome.