Zambia
Tanzania won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Tanzania
Postmatch editorial
Tanzania bent the night away from the script
The final score was Zambia 0-1 Tanzania. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Waziri Shentembo put the first mark on the match 5', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Zambia led Shots on target 4-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Zambia also shaded Corners 6-1.
Before kickoff, our model made Zambia the likeliest result at 47.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Zambia at 62.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Zambia
47.5%
Market result
Zambia
62.1%
BTTS
No
53.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
ZambiaZambia
Tanzania
4
1
Corners
ZambiaZambia
Tanzania
6
1
Possession
Zambia
Tanzania
50%
50%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.