Postmatch editorial

Niger flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Zambia 0-1 Niger. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Daniel Sosah put the first mark on the match 56', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Zambia led Total shots 16-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Zambia also shaded Corners 9-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Zambia the likeliest result at 48.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Zambia at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.9%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Unibet. The market was offering 4.80 against a fair line of 4.44. That translated to an edge of 8.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Zambia

48.9%

Miss

Market result

Zambia

44.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

53.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Zambia

Zambia

Niger

16

6

Corners

Zambia

Zambia

Niger

9

4

Shots on target

Niger

Zambia

Niger

3

4

Model edge

2

Unibet

Market odd

4.80

Fair odd

4.44

Edge

8.1%

Stake

0.44u

That ticket matched the final outcome.