Postmatch editorial

The script held and Morocco delivered it

The final score was Zambia 0-2 Morocco. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Youssef En-Nesyri put the first mark on the match 7', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Zambia led Corners 6-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Zambia also shaded Possession 72%-28%.

Before kickoff, our model made Morocco the likeliest result at 59.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Morocco at 70.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.4%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 10bet. The market was offering 1.62 against a fair line of 1.58. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Morocco

59.4%

Hit

Market result

Morocco

70.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

54.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Zambia

Zambia

Morocco

6

1

Possession

Zambia

Zambia

Morocco

72%

28%

Shots on target

Zambia

Zambia

Morocco

4

3

Model edge

2

10bet

Market odd

1.62

Fair odd

1.58

Edge

2.5%

Stake

1.22u

That ticket matched the final outcome.