Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolverhampton Wanderers won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Liverpool
Postmatch editorial
Wolverhampton Wanderers flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-1 Liverpool. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when André scored 90+4' for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Liverpool led Total shots 4-20, even though the scoreboard went another way. Liverpool also shaded Shots on target 3-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Liverpool the likeliest result at 64.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Liverpool at 69.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.0%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.54 against a fair line of 1.51. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Liverpool
64.2%
Market result
Liverpool
69.4%
BTTS
Yes
50.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
LiverpoolWolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool
4
20
Shots on target
LiverpoolWolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool
3
7
Corners
LiverpoolWolverhampton Wanderers
Liverpool
2
11
Model edge
2
1xbet
Market odd
1.54
Fair odd
1.51
Edge
2.0%
Stake
1.27u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.