Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolverhampton Wanderers won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Aston Villa
Postmatch editorial
Wolverhampton Wanderers flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Wolverhampton Wanderers 2-0 Aston Villa. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Rodrigo Gomes scored 90+8' for Wolverhampton Wanderers.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Aston Villa led Shots on target 2-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Aston Villa also shaded Corners 0-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Aston Villa the likeliest result at 53.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Aston Villa at 57.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.8%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Aston Villa
53.8%
Market result
Aston Villa
57.1%
BTTS
Yes
57.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Aston VillaWolverhampton Wanderers
Aston Villa
2
5
Corners
Aston VillaWolverhampton Wanderers
Aston Villa
0
5
Total shots
Aston VillaWolverhampton Wanderers
Aston Villa
9
14
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.