Postmatch editorial
AFC Bournemouth settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Wolverhampton Wanderers 0-2 AFC Bournemouth. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Alex Scott scored 90+1' for AFC Bournemouth.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Wolverhampton Wanderers led Shots on target 7-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Wolverhampton Wanderers also shaded Total shots 17-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Wolverhampton Wanderers the likeliest result at 39.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced AFC Bournemouth at 42.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.3%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Wolverhampton Wanderers
39.3%
Market result
AFC Bournemouth
42.0%
BTTS
Yes
61.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Wolverhampton WanderersWolverhampton Wanderers
AFC Bournemouth
7
4
Total shots
Wolverhampton WanderersWolverhampton Wanderers
AFC Bournemouth
17
9
Corners
AFC BournemouthWolverhampton Wanderers
AFC Bournemouth
5
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.