Postmatch editorial

West Ham United turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was West Ham United 3-0 Leeds United. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Callum Wilson scored 90+4' for West Ham United.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: West Ham United led Shots on target 9-3. Leeds United also shaded Possession 42%-58%.

Before kickoff, our model made West Ham United the likeliest result at 37.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced West Ham United at 58.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 1.79 against a fair line of 1.74. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

West Ham United

37.4%

Hit

Market result

West Ham United

58.8%

Hit

BTTS

No

51.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

West Ham United

West Ham United

Leeds United

9

3

Possession

Leeds United

West Ham United

Leeds United

42%

58%

Corners

West Ham United

West Ham United

Leeds United

6

4

Model edge

1

Mansionbet

Market odd

1.79

Fair odd

1.74

Edge

2.9%

Stake

1.02u

That ticket matched the final outcome.