West Ham United
Arsenal won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Arsenal
Postmatch editorial
Arsenal made the numbers look right
The final score was West Ham United 0-1 Arsenal. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Leandro Trossard scored 83' for Arsenal.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Arsenal led Total shots 9-15. Arsenal also shaded Possession 36%-64%.
Before kickoff, our model made Arsenal the likeliest result at 60.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Arsenal at 64.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.2%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Arsenal
60.6%
Market result
Arsenal
64.1%
BTTS
No
50.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
ArsenalWest Ham United
Arsenal
9
15
Possession
ArsenalWest Ham United
Arsenal
36%
64%
Shots on target
ArsenalWest Ham United
Arsenal
3
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.