Postmatch editorial
TSG Hoffenheim made the numbers look right
The final score was Werder Bremen 0-2 TSG Hoffenheim. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Alexander Prass put the first mark on the match 44', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Werder Bremen led Total shots 26-12, even though the scoreboard went another way. Werder Bremen also shaded Possession 59%-41%.
Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 42.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 51.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.9%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.25 against a fair line of 2.16. That translated to an edge of 4.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
TSG Hoffenheim
42.2%
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
51.7%
BTTS
Yes
54.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
TSG Hoffenheim
26
12
Possession
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
TSG Hoffenheim
59%
41%
Corners
TSG HoffenheimWerder Bremen
TSG Hoffenheim
6
7
Model edge
2
Mansionbet
Market odd
2.25
Fair odd
2.16
Edge
4.2%
Stake
0.84u
That ticket matched the final outcome.