Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
RB Leipzig
Postmatch editorial
RB Leipzig made the numbers look right
The final score was Werder Bremen 1-2 RB Leipzig. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Antonio Nusa put the first mark on the match 15', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Werder Bremen led Shots on target 5-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Werder Bremen also shaded Corners 1-0.
Before kickoff, our model made RB Leipzig the likeliest result at 46.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced RB Leipzig at 54.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
RB Leipzig
46.9%
Market result
RB Leipzig
54.6%
BTTS
Yes
58.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
RB Leipzig
5
2
Corners
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
RB Leipzig
1
0
Total shots
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
RB Leipzig
13
7
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.