Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Heidenheim
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Werder Bremen delivered it
The final score was Werder Bremen 2-0 Heidenheim. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Hennes Behrens scored 90+7' for Werder Bremen.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Werder Bremen led Shots on target 6-0. Werder Bremen also shaded Total shots 17-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Werder Bremen the likeliest result at 44.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Werder Bremen at 61.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.1%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 1.75 against a fair line of 1.70. That translated to an edge of 2.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Werder Bremen
44.3%
Market result
Werder Bremen
61.7%
BTTS
Yes
57.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Heidenheim
6
0
Total shots
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Heidenheim
17
9
Corners
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Heidenheim
3
2
Model edge
1
Mansionbet
Market odd
1.75
Fair odd
1.70
Edge
2.9%
Stake
1.07u
That ticket matched the final outcome.