Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
Hamburger SV
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Werder Bremen delivered it
The final score was Werder Bremen 3-1 Hamburger SV. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Cameron Puertas scored 90+1' for Werder Bremen.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Werder Bremen led Shots on target 10-3. Werder Bremen also shaded Corners 7-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Werder Bremen the likeliest result at 41.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Werder Bremen at 55.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.1%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Werder Bremen
41.1%
Market result
Werder Bremen
55.4%
BTTS
Yes
59.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Hamburger SV
10
3
Corners
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Hamburger SV
7
3
Total shots
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
Hamburger SV
18
11
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.