Postmatch editorial

FSV Mainz 05 bent the night away from the script

The final score was Werder Bremen 0-2 FSV Mainz 05. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Paul Nebel put the first mark on the match 5', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Werder Bremen led Possession 66%-34%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Werder Bremen also shaded Shots on target 3-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Werder Bremen the likeliest result at 41.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Werder Bremen at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.2%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Werder Bremen

41.2%

Miss

Market result

Werder Bremen

44.4%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

54.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen

FSV Mainz 05

66%

34%

Shots on target

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen

FSV Mainz 05

3

2

Corners

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen

FSV Mainz 05

9

4

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.