Werder Bremen
FC Augsburg won after full-time.
1 - 3
FT
FC Augsburg
Postmatch editorial
FC Augsburg found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Anton Kade put the first mark on the match 24', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Werder Bremen led Corners 8-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Augsburg also shaded Shots on target 4-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Werder Bremen the likeliest result at 39.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Werder Bremen at 51.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.8%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Werder Bremen
39.7%
Market result
Werder Bremen
51.0%
BTTS
Yes
56.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
FC Augsburg
8
2
Shots on target
FC AugsburgWerder Bremen
FC Augsburg
4
7
Possession
Werder BremenWerder Bremen
FC Augsburg
68%
32%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.