Postmatch editorial

Wales turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Wales 7-1 North Macedonia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Nathan Broadhead scored 88' for Wales.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Wales led Shots on target 10-2. Wales also shaded Total shots 17-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Wales the likeliest result at 50.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Wales at 63.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.73 against a fair line of 1.68. That translated to an edge of 3.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Wales

50.2%

Hit

Market result

Wales

63.7%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

51.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Wales

Wales

North Macedonia

10

2

Total shots

Wales

Wales

North Macedonia

17

6

Possession

Wales

Wales

North Macedonia

70%

30%

Model edge

1

188bet

Market odd

1.73

Fair odd

1.68

Edge

3.0%

Stake

1.08u

That ticket matched the final outcome.