Postmatch editorial

Neither side managed to pull the match clear

The final score was Wales 1-1 Bosnia and Herzegovina after extra time. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Edin Džeko 86', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bosnia and Herzegovina led Shots on target 3-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Wales also shaded Corners 9-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Wales the likeliest result at 62.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Wales at 59.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.4%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 888sport. The market was offering 1.91 against a fair line of 1.85. That translated to an edge of 3.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Wales

62.7%

Miss

Market result

Wales

59.5%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

53.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Wales

Bosnia and Herzegovina

3

5

Corners

Wales

Wales

Bosnia and Herzegovina

9

3

Possession

Wales

Wales

Bosnia and Herzegovina

62%

38%

Model edge

1

888sport

Market odd

1.91

Fair odd

1.85

Edge

3.2%

Stake

0.99u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.