Postmatch editorial

Sevilla bent the night away from the script

The final score was Villarreal 2-3 Sevilla. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Villarreal struck first through Gerard Moreno 13', but Sevilla recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Sevilla led Total shots 6-13. Villarreal also shaded Possession 63%-37%.

Before kickoff, our model made Villarreal the likeliest result at 60.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Villarreal at 47.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 2.20 against a fair line of 2.11. That translated to an edge of 4.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Villarreal

60.3%

Miss

Market result

Villarreal

47.6%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

56.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Sevilla

Villarreal

Sevilla

6

13

Possession

Villarreal

Villarreal

Sevilla

63%

37%

Shots on target

Sevilla

Villarreal

Sevilla

4

5

Model edge

1

Interwetten

Market odd

2.20

Fair odd

2.11

Edge

4.3%

Stake

0.81u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.