Villarreal
Villarreal won after full-time.
5 - 1
FT
Atlético de Madrid
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Villarreal delivered it
The final score was Villarreal 5-1 Atlético de Madrid. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Dani Parejo put the first mark on the match 30', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Villarreal led Shots on target 8-4. Villarreal also shaded Total shots 14-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Villarreal the likeliest result at 39.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Villarreal at 40.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.9%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Villarreal
39.7%
Market result
Villarreal
40.0%
BTTS
Yes
60.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
VillarrealVillarreal
Atlético de Madrid
8
4
Total shots
VillarrealVillarreal
Atlético de Madrid
14
9
Corners
Atlético de MadridVillarreal
Atlético de Madrid
5
9
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.